Key Takeaways
Was October’s Bitcoin Crash Really About Rates?
Derivatives data showed an overheated Bitcoin market. In short, the wipeout looked more like a leverage flush than a macro reaction.
What’s next for BTC heading into Labor Data Week?
With cleaner positioning and whales defending $100,000, BTC could retest key support before smart money rolls back.
The market continues to defy mainstream expectations.
On October 10, headlines blamed Trump’s trade war with China for Bitcoin’s [BTC] A 5.82% dump in one day, leading to a record $19 billion in consecutive liquidations in the crypto market.
Fast forward, and the White House has now confirmed one Trade agreement between US and Chinabut the market is still bleeding. So was the tariff story ‘overhyped’?
If so, what does this mean for BTC as it heads into another big macro week?
What October’s sell-off says about market positioning
The October crash seemed like a textbook example of market manipulation.
Derivatives data showed a clear design. Futures liquidity was stacked, with Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) peaking at a record $94 billion on October 7.
Simply put, the derivatives market was overheated.
It was against that backdrop that the subsequent $19 billion blowout looked designed massacre designed to flush out excess retail debt. In that context, the tariff war story was just a convenient cover.
Source: CoinGlass
Just the muted reaction to the recent trade deal strengthened the line-up.
Bitcoin OGs continued to unloadwho controls the Spot under the STH cost basis for $113k. STH NUPL turned over red, showing that weak hands are still being shaken out, while OI fell below $70 billion for the first time in ten days.
In short, the market positioning looks cleaner, paving the way for stronger hands to enter again. But with another macro-heavy week on deck, is BTC in line for another shakeout before smart money buys the dip?
US labor data keeps an eye on Bitcoin as positioning resets
The data clearly indicated a market reset was underway.
With an intraday drop of 3.32% TOTAL market capitalization has wiped out $140 billion, wiping out the gains of the past three days. Bitcoin led the move, accounting for 60% of the outflows as bulls continue to de-risk.
In short, macro pressure is back in play.
Fed Chairman Powell’s comments at the latest FOMC about a weakening labor market put added emphasis on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls print due Nov. 7.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
In short, BTC’s return towards $107,000 support is not random.
On the daily chart, it looked like the price would retest the level for the fourth time since the October flush. But despite several attempts, the $100,000 has not been cracked.
Instead, any “dip” is absorbed, showing that the bidding wall remains strong.
In this setup Bitcoin whale current remained strategic and non-reactive.
Whales have been offloading to flush weak hands and keep their position tight. The game is clear: increase leverage and defend $100k.
Once the macro overhang is gone, turn back in, making the $115k breakout just a matter of timing.