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Bitcoin may be stuck in a downtrend, but fundamental analysis suggests it is in a healthy position. According to a recent analysis by crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is currently showing healthier dynamics than during the previous halving cycle. These intriguing prospects for Bitcoin come amid the cryptocurrency’s struggles hold steady above $54,000 And breaking above $57,000.
Bitcoin is in a healthier place
Kaleo’s Bitcoin analysis, posted on social media platform but the BTC price has yet to meet the expectations that many expected.
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The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading 19% below the all-time high of $69,434, which was reached during the last market cycle. While some may interpret this underperformance as a sign of a long-term bearish trend, Kaleo pointed out that Bitcoin is actually still holding up well. This is because after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was already down 46% from its 2018 high. This historical context reiterates BTC’s stronger position today, despite the current struggle to materially get out of trouble.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616. The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has led several crypto analysts to scale back their once-optimistic predictions. There have been many now negative and bearish predictions given the current market situation.
However, Kaleo reminds us of a sentiment similar to the one that dominated the market shortly after the 2020 halving. At the time there was a negative outlook. Many market participants expressed doubts and negative predictions about the future of BTC. Yet Bitcoin bulls ultimately defied these predictions, pushing the cryptocurrency’s market cap above the $1 trillion level for the first time. This also caused a significant increase in the value of many altcoins and the rise of new sectors such as NFTs.
What if I told you that Bitcoin is now in a healthier place than when it was at the same point after the halving last cycle?
It is currently only ~19% lower than the top of the last cycle (141 days after the halving).
In 2020 it was ~46% lower than the top 141 days after the 2018 halving.… pic.twitter.com/tZ0mFey15I
— KALEO (@CryptoKaleo) September 9, 2024
What’s next for BTC?
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that, despite the current pessimism, history could repeat itself, and Bitcoin again exceed market expectations. Furthermore, the analyst suggests that the crypto ecosystem is now in a better place to support a stronger price increase. For example, institutional investors can now efficiently invest in BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. The clarity of regulations surrounding the crypto industry has also improved dramatically over the past four years.
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Another analyst, Rekt Capital, previous halving examined cycles and suggested that if history repeats itself, the next Bitcoin breakout could occur in October, which has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. History also shows this that the market peak could occur between 518 and 546 days after the April halving.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
