Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has come up with an intriguing idea story This points to several trends in Bitcoin’s current price action that are similar to the price trends from the 2016 bull cycle, even as market sentiment continues to decline.
Bitcoin trends repeat 2016 pattern
According to Rekt Capital, it has been more than a month since the first analysis Bitcoin continues to demonstrate how much it closely resembles the 2016 cycle. As in 2016, Bitcoin has experienced further declines over the past three weeks after the halving below the lower end of its reaccumulation range, also known as the post-halving danger zone.
The message read:
Over a month later, Bitcoin continues to prove that it is looking more like the 2016 cycle. As in 2016, Bitcoin sees additional downside in this cycle below the low end of its reaccumulation range in the three-week period following the halving (i.e. the “post-halving danger zone”).
Since Rekt Capital has already discussed the concept of the Post-Halving Danger Zone, the analyst is not shocked by this current price drop. During the 2016 cycle, approximately 21 days after the halving event, BTC experienced a prolonged decline of 11% before moving to an upward direction.
It is worth noting that Rekt Capital noted that if downside volatility around the Re-Accumulation Range Low will occur in this cycle, 2016 history indicates that this could happen during the 15 days following the halving. Since the recent event was completed about twelve days ago, the expert’s prediction could be realized in the coming days.
Related reading: Bitcoin enters ‘danger zone’ after halving, analyst warns of potential downsides
While the “Danger Zone” ends after the halving in 15 days, data from 2016 suggests there could be some negative volatility in the meantime, potentially reaching as low as $60,600.
Rekt Capital drew attention to previous patterns, highlighting a similar pattern between the 2016 and 2024 reaccumulation series before the halving. After a breakout from the reaccumulation range this year, BTC witnessed one Pre-halving rallyas observed in 2016.
Kickback move before halving
Just like in 2016, when the pre-halving rally peaked, Bitcoin started its rally Retrace before the halving. Specifically, this happened approximately 28 days prior to the halving event in both 2016 and 2024.
A negative wick on the weekly candle indicates a significant reaction in the first week of the pre-Halving Retrace in 2016. However, this reaction was transient and preceded a prolonged price decline.
This cycle also saw a strong early reaction from Bitcoin via a downward spiral, but there are indications that this reaction may not have lasted long. To avoid a fate similar to that of 2016, Rekt Capital believes that BTC will need to maintain highs around $60,000 and above.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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