Ethereum (ETH) fell on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the broader crypto market weakened – a level well below the critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as the trigger for a sustained macro bull run.
In a breakdown shared on social media platform
Technical Crossroads for Ethereum
Martinez framed the current price action in technical terms: suggestive Ethereum could form an ascending triangle. In that scenario, he places a “line in the sand” at around $1,800, noting that this figure closely overlaps with the 0.80 MVRV price band of around $1,880.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares the market price of an asset to the average price paid by holders for the asset; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as a “medium reception” indicator with historically marked cycle bottoms.
When the band is reached, he says, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market are often in a state of “extreme pain,” a phase where selling tends to exhaust itself and long-term holders step in.
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In addition to the rising triangle scenario, Martinez recognized a bearish alternative. If the price of Ethereum is actually limited to a parallel channel instead of an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset is possible.
In that case, he is keeping an eye on the outer limits of the channel at around $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to the URPD – the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH last moved.
Martinez calls this distribution “the memory of the market,” because it identifies levels where large clusters of coins have been acquired and where defensive buying pressure is likely to occur.
$4,900 in the short term and $5,900 in the longer term
According to the Martinez URPD, the main buy walls are below 0.80 MVRV band are approximately $1,584, $1,238 and $1,089. These price clusters, if tested, could generate meaningful support as holders who bought at that level look to defend their positions.
Martinez believes accumulation will likely occur in the “low thousands”; However, he claimed that Ethereum is the “starter” for the next major upside phase, which will regain the realized price of $2,500.
If Ethereum can break above $2,500 and hold, Martinez says the technical and signals on the chain would indicate a ‘target-rich environment’.
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His analysis places a short-term upside potential towards $4,900 – a level he links to the ascending triangle structure – and ultimately towards the 2.40 MVRV band, near $5,900, which would represent a new all-time high for the Ethereum price.
Reaching these zones, according to the expert, would confirm that average holders are making profits again and that the market has decisively shifted from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com