Bitcoin [BTC] continued its race south and fell under the $70,000 lap number. The crypto leader was trading at $69.6k at the time of writing and has lost 4.21% in the past 24 hours and 9.1% in the past week.
Investor confidence fell. Aside from the price action, daily spot ETF flows also reflected this. According to SoSoValue’s ETF dashboard, June 1 recorded negative flows of $483.76 million.
Net flows have been negative for every Spot ETF trading day since May 15. Since that day, Bitcoin has fallen 14.18%, from $81,090 to $69,590.
Increased Bitcoin Whale Activity Raises Alarms
In a post on This was the highest since April 22.
While the message noted that this type of whale activity was historically a sign of strong accumulation, the context of the current measure was likely different.
When examining the net transfer volume of Bitcoin to and from exchanges, AMBCrypto found that inflows exceeded outflows. The 7-day moving average has been positive since May 18.
As more BTC hits exchanges, it becomes more likely that whales and other market participants will sell and not accumulate.
Falling weekly volatility does not mean the market has fallen asleep
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. used one week’s realized price volatility, smoothed over a 30-day period, to demonstrate volatility compression. Scores fell from 39 in early March to 17 now, close to the lowest recorded level in the indicator’s history.
By comparing the annual average difference between daily market capitalization growth rates and realized capitalization, the analyst found that BTC’s market value is not keeping pace with the network’s realized value.
The negative delta showed that the market was far from trading at a premium, something that happens during bull phases when investor confidence is high.
Gently rising long-term volatility indicated cooling conditions, while the market premium continues to shrink.
Bitcoin was preparing for its next big move, if it hasn’t already started.
If we follow the higher time structure, it becomes clear why Bitcoin is likely to continue falling. The March to May rally was a relief that almost challenged the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $83.4k.
The bulls had a fight, but this fight has since turned into a meek surrender. At the time of writing, BTC was trading below $70,000 and was likely heading towards the 23.6% expansion level at $51,000.
Final summary
- Bitcoin fell in part due to deteriorating investor sentiment, as reflected in spot ETF net flow numbers since mid-May.
- The long-term price trends indicate that a move towards $51,000 is possible.