According to historical data, Bitcoin’s price has never posted three consecutive months of positive performance in a bear market year. This trend will continue into 2026, with May likely ending in the red for BTC, following optimistic performances in March and April, and at the beginning of this month. Recent on-chain data suggests that short-term investors may also be capitulating amid Bitcoin’s disappointing price action in recent weeks.
Are Short-Term BTC Investors Losing Conviction?
In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst RugaResearch says revealed that a specific cohort of Bitcoin investors moved a significant amount of BTC in the past day. This group of investors is known as the short-term holders, who are known (or infamous) for being the most reactive in the market.
RugaResearch specifically reported that 107,760 BTC within the 1 to 3 month age range moved in one day, the largest value movement on the chain (within this age range) in more than seven months. For context, the spent output age categories are an on-chain indicator that segments spent transaction outputs into age categories, showing the share of total coins moved and how long they were inactive.
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The 1- to 3-month Spent Output Age Band tracks Bitcoin purchased between late February and late April (from the start of BTC’s recovery to around $80,000 last month). RugaResearch said that when this age bracket witnesses an aggressive move like the one seen recently, it means the latest investors are reacting rather than accumulating.
The crypto expert highlighted that the movement of these 107,760 BTC while the Bitcoin price is below $74,000 means that a significant portion of the 1-3 month Spent Output Age Band is out-of-the-money – or at best close to break-even. While it is still unclear why this move has occurred, this uproar does not indicate a conviction among the most reactive group of investors.
RugaResearch wrote:
Exchange inflows tell you if these coins are on their way to selling. If they end up on exchanges, it will have flush legs. If they move to cold stores or OTC offices, redistribution is under pressure.
Therefore, the data from centralized exchanges is one of the signals that we should look at in the coming days to decipher the purpose of this move.
Bitcoin price momentum remains negative for eight days
At the same time, RugaResearch revealed a worrying trend with the Bitcoin Price Momentum indicator, which has remained negative since May 22. After rising to a nearly one-year high of +20.5% on May 5, the on-chain metric fell 12.9 percentage points about ten days later.
After turning negative just over a week ago, Bitcoin Price Momentum is currently at 4.07%. “If production from 1 to 3 million euros rises 6.7x overnight, while momentum declines for eight days in a row, the positioning game changes,” the market analyst concluded.
At the time of writing, BTC’s price stands at around $73,410, reflecting a decline of just 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView