Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis of the US stock market has attracted a lot of attention across markets.
According to the bank, macro uncertainties remain significant even as short-term risks to equities decline, and markets may be ‘underpricing’ deeper downside risks. This view particularly reflects recent reports claiming that stocks appear overvalued, with AI-powered momentum accounting for much of the upside.
At the same time, current macro signals appear to reinforce this statement. For example, 10-year US Treasury yields have risen above 4.5% and have now climbed above 4.63%, marking the highest level since February 2025. Against this background, the most important question becomes: what does this mean for the crypto market?
A closer look at the analysis shows that rising oil prices pose a significant risk to equities. According to the reportThe longer markets remain without a “clear” peace deal and a “credible” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the greater the chance that energy shortages will reemerge as a major macro risk. As the bank noted,
The longer it goes without a clear peace deal and a convincing reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the more likely we are to re-examine that risk as energy shortages become more apparent.
Interestingly, macro signals are already starting to reflect this view. Following new warnings against Iran from US President Donald Trump, in addition to rising government bond yields and a decline in the Fear & Greed Index, macro uncertainty appears to be creeping back into equities, increasing the risk of renewed market volatility.
However, one key signal suggests that crypto may not be able to move along in this risky environment. Instead, a key market metric indicates that investors may be starting to price in the potential “undervaluation” of crypto.
While stocks wobble, crypto liquidity tells a different story
Energy markets remain under pressure, in line with Goldman Sachs’ outlook.
On the technical side, oil prices have risen almost 10% in less than two weeks, pushing them closer to $120/barrel and bringing inflation risks back into focus. At the same time, rising government bond yields are adding even more pressure as investors pile into bonds, raising the risk that crypto will see a similar sell-off as stocks.
However, stablecoin flows may be the most important variable in this cycle. As the chart below shows, liquidity in cryptocurrencies remains strong. In May, high-cap assets all outperformed the S&P 500. Monthly flows are also turning positive. ETFs added $1.51 billion, stablecoins saw inflows of $2.49 billion and CEX holdings rose $3.29 billion.
In short, the crypto market continues to exhibit strong liquidity on a month-to-month basis despite short-term volatility pushing prices below key resistance levels. This divergence supports the view that crypto may be underpriced while liquidity continues to build beneath the surface.
In this context, Goldman Sachs’ prospects may be timely. If investors undervalue macro risks while stocks remain under pressure, this could create conditions for crypto to attract incremental capital, driving a more liquidity-driven rotation in the future.
Final summary
- Macro risks are increasing as equity markets appear to be under pressure, with Goldman Sachs pointing to a possible undervalued downside risk.
- Crypto holds liquidity, with steady inflows suggesting it may be relatively undervalued.