Fewer derivatives traders are currently placing new bets on Bitcoin. Open interest is little changed – up just 1.50% to $55 billion – and more futures positions have been closed than opened in the last 24 hours. Volume fell 21% to $30 billion. The market awaits.
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Sellers have had the upper hand for more than a year
The wait may be nearing an end, according to data company CryptoQuant. Analyst Moreno published findings that show Bitcoin is nearing a test of two key metrics that have shaped the market structure since early 2024.
How the country responds to that test, reports indicate, could determine the direction of the next major step.
Central to the analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV – a metric that measures whether recent buyers are making a profit or loss.
Bitcoin is about to reverse the market structure
“A sustained recovery in the realized price, combined with a stabilization of the MVRV and a trend above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change.” – By means of @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/AxxsyFEyzi
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2026
Since early 2024, it has made a series of lower highs even as Bitcoin’s price climbed to new records. When BTC reached around $72,000 in March 2024, the MVRV peaked above 1.4. In November 2024, Bitcoin rose towards $106,000, but the benchmark failed to reach its previous high.
The pattern repeated itself in July 2025, when Bitcoin reached around $120,000, but the MVRV remained lower and marked a clear downward trendline. That trend line has served as a ceiling for every upturn since then.
The MVRV is now approaching that same ceiling again.
Buyers need to recover a significant level of costs
At the same time, Bitcoin is approaching the Short-Term Holder Realized Price – the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins.
This level is important because it divides the short-term holders’ basis between profit and loss. When Bitcoin trades below, recent buyers are underwater and are more likely to sell in a rally. When it trades higher, the selling pressure decreases.
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, a confirmed move above the realized price – combined with the MVRV position above 1.0 – would mark a meaningful change in the structure.
It would signal that recent buyers are no longer a consistent drag on the price, putting any upward movement on a stronger foundation. On the other hand, if we do not stay above that level, the existing structure would remain intact.
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US spot buyers are still on the sidelines
Other data points to continued caution. The Mint Base Premium index – which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, often used as a proxy for institutional demand in the US – is -0.018%.
Negative numbers indicate that US spot buyers are not driving purchases. Bitcoin has recovered from previous lows, briefly hitting $79,200, but has since pulled back to around $78,300.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView