Rarely are movements in crypto purely coincidental. More often, they reflect repeating historical patterns.
If this pattern plays out again, Bitcoin [BTC] could be preparing for a potential liquidation-induced move, with a clean breakout towards the $85k area looking less likely in the near term.
As some analysts note, Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, often ending May in the red with double-digit losses. The main question now is whether BTC will repeat this seasonal behavior.
As the chart shows, Bitcoin ended April up 11.87%, marking the strongest month of 2026 yet and starting the second quarter on solid footing after a 22.04% correction in the first quarter.
That said, near-term momentum now depends on regaining the $80,000 level, which is in a key supply zone.
Notably, there are approximately $100 million worth of Bitcoin sell orders stacked between $78,500 and $80,000, adding a distinctly low supply overhead in this range. Naturally, bulls need strong bid support to break through this zone and open further to the upside.
According to AMBCrypto, the May outlook is starting to matter more.
Interestingly, these expectations are not just speculative. Instead, analysts are pointing to increasing macro volatility surrounding the incoming leadership of the Federal Reserve, continued uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and oil prices returning above $100 per barrel.
All this adds to the argument that exiting the cycle may be more strategic than remaining exposed and watching profit margins gradually shrink.
The question naturally arises: is the market entering a phase where risk management takes precedence over chasing upside?
Bitcoin faces seasonal headwinds
Bitcoin’s April rally is driven by strong ETF flows, reinforcing institutional conviction.
But in addition to the flows, the impact is also psychological.
From a technical perspective, BTC’s first-quarter correction followed the 23.29% dip in the fourth quarter, meaning the FUD from the October crash clearly carried over into the early 2026 rally, when BTC recorded its first red January in years, down 10.17%, the weakest January since the 2022 bear market.
Notably, this aligned with Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $1.6 billion, bringing total ETF flows in the first quarter to -$40 million. However, the trend now seems to have reversed.
While March saw inflows of $1.32 billion, April followed with net inflows of nearly $2 billion, marking the strongest monthly ETF demand of 2025.
From a psychological point of view, the October FUD now seems to have completely faded.
In this context, Bitcoin’s 11.84% gain in April was clearly supported by strong demand in the spot market, with May already seeing over $600 million in net ETF inflows so far.
If this trend continues, the $100 million supply zone, which is just below BTC’s $80,000 resistance, could start to look more like a liquidity pocket than a structural ceiling.
Meanwhile, now that the October FUD has finally been reversed, institutional conviction appears to be strengthening again. This shifts the narrative around May from a potential risk management phase to a more continuation phase.
In this context, Bitcoin’s May rally leans more toward capturing upside rather than prematurely exiting positions.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is at a major technical inflection point, with resistance at $80,000, large supply overhead and seasonal headwinds.
- ETF flows suggest that BTC can continue to move higher, supported by both psychological and technical strength.