Bitcoin is trading below a key cost threshold that short-term holders paid to acquire it — a sign that many recent buyers are taking losses heading into one of the biggest options expiration events of the month.
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Bitcoin: Bears Hold Lead and Decline
Showing Glassnode data Bitcoin is currently priced below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900, and also below the true market average of $78,000.
The support is lower, between $65,000 and $70,000. This backdrop sets a cautious tone as approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts – worth $1.74 billion – are set to expire today on the derivatives exchange Deribit.
The put-call ratio for these contracts is 1.10, which means more traders are betting on price drops than on gains.
Bitcoin’s maximum pain price – the level at which the largest number of options expire worthless – is $76,000, down slightly from where it was trading at around $77,200 at the time of writing.
Deribit has identified the settlement as something to watch closely, with data showing a 95% probability of Bitcoin options expiring above the $76,000 mark. The heavy volume is concentrated at the strike prices of $75,500 and $77,000.
🚨 May 1 Options Expiration Warning.
Today at 08:00 UTC, ~$2.14 billion worth of crypto options on Deribit expire.$BTC: ~$1.74 billion notional | Move/Call: 1.10 | Maximum pain: $76,000$ETH: ~$394M notional | Move/Call: 0.95 | Maximum pain: $2,325BTC spot pinned exactly to maximum pain. ETH trading… pic.twitter.com/UC2GkTnBMb
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) May 1, 2026
Over the past 24 hours, the put-call ratio for Bitcoin trading activity increased to 0.73, while overall volume fell. The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged contributed to the slowdown.
Ethereum is under its own pain point
Ethereum faces similar pressures. More than 175,000 ETH options worth $400 million expire today on Deribit, with a put-call ratio of 0.95. In the past 24 hours alone, volume rose sharply above call volume, bringing the ratio to 1.17 – a sign that traders are adjusting to potential negative consequences.
What makes Ethereum’s situation somewhat different is where it is trading relative to maximum pain. ETH’s maximum pain price is $2,325, but the token was changing hands around $2,284 at the time of writing – already below that level. The 24-hour range was $2,232 to $2,293. Trading volume fell by 45% last day.
Broader pressures are weighing on crypto markets
Option expirations do not happen in a vacuum. US PCE inflation hit a three-year high of 3.5%, roiling broader markets and fueling profit-taking in crypto.
Oil prices rose to $106 a barrel as the US maintained a naval blockade of the barrels Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s offer to end the standoff, with reports of a possible escalation adding to market unrest.
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Together, these factors have kept buyers cautious. Crypto markets saw widespread selling after inflation data dropped, and uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation has not subsided.
Whether the current option expiration will add to that pressure – or pass without incident – may depend on whether Bitcoin can stay above the $76,000 mark when the contracts settle.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView