According to new research from Grayscale, Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that started last October. The company points to February 5 – when BTC was trading around $63,000 – as a “sustainable” market bottom.
Potential start of a new Bitcoin bull market
According to Grayscale, the recovery since that low point has been meaningful. The company’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed out at around $63,000 and has since risen more than 20% to around $76,000.
That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which is important because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a decline. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may decrease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control.
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For Bitcoin traded in the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price amounts to approximately $74,000. That means many newer buyers are already close to breaking even.
If BTC continues to rise in the coming days, more recent participants could transition to positive gains and losses, which Grayscale sees as a possible early sign of a transition to a bull market.
In that context, the February 5 low is not just a statistical low; it is presented as the point at which the market has stabilized enough to begin a new trend. new upward phase.
$78,000 still holds the key
Complementing the bullish case: Bitcoin whales reportedly added around 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation rate since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC in the past three months.
Glass junction facts also indicates that the upward momentum has cooled somewhat. However, it still signals strong buyer interest, which could help soften the market and reduce the chance of a sharp decline. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has increased, indicating continued participation rather than a sudden exit.
In Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to an improvement in several indicators, including an increase in the MVRV ratio in addition to net flow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and increased investor interest.
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Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture presents as a cautiously optimistic shift in sentiment, especially for investors engaging with Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody.
Even with these supportive signals, Bitcoin is not without short-term challenges. BTC has returned somewhat to the $75,800 area at the time of writing, and it remains unclear whether it can break the $75,800 barrier. nearest resistance level near $78,000.
That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The general premise is that the market may be preparing for a bigger move, but the next move will likely depend on whether the resistance can be overcome.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com