XRP has been trying to take its momentum higher after last week’s rally, but at this point it is hitting a familiar ceiling. The token is now hovering at the top of its consolidation band, trading in the roughly $1.3 to $1.4 range, but buyers have been unable to force it into a sustained breakout.
Still, XRP’s daily MACD has turned bullish for the first time since January, a shift that could signal improving momentum and a potential renewed lead.
According to to market expert Sam Daodu: whether this turnaround will hold will depend on the key developments in the next ten days. Several key macro and regulatory milestones will act as trigger points in the near term.
This signal has a great history
Daodu notes that on the daily chart of XRP, the MACD line remained below the signal line for most of 2026. Attempts to turn bullish have repeatedly failed so far. The difference this time, he says, is that the bullish change has managed to hold on rather than immediately deteriorate.
He also points out that when XRP has seen the MACD turn around before, it has not been a minor event. The last time the same kind of bullish signal was held, XRP recorded its biggest move in months.
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In early January, the MACD turned bullish and the token rose by around 25% in one week. That move culminated in a peak around $2.40 on January 7, which Daodu describes as XRP’s strongest rally of the year at that time – and one that started with the same bullish momentum setup that is now reemerging.
Even with the momentum indicator running, Daodu argues that XRP is still needed two important catalysts to break out cleanly instead of just oscillating within the current range.
The first is the regulatory progress associated with the CLARITY Act. Specifically, he says the CLARITY Act increase should happen before May because institutional participation often depends on clearer regulatory visibility.
The second catalyst is a geopolitical solution; he expects the ceasefire in the war to be extended beyond April 22. Taken together, these developments are important because they can unlock additional institutional demand that has been waiting for clarity.
XRP Breakout Watch
Daodu predicts that if both factors fall into place, institutions waiting for regulatory coverage could pour another $4 to $8 billion into XRP. exchange traded funds (ETFs).
From a price confirmation perspective, he adds that a daily close above $1.55 would confirm the MACD flip and reinforce the idea that the current breakout attempt is more than a temporary spike.
If that confirmation comes, the upside targets he refers to will point back to $1.80. This would represent a 25% increase in the altcoin’s price from its current level of $1.43.
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However, there is a clearer path along which the rally could come to a halt. The quickest way for the momentum to fade, he believes, is to… ceasefire expires April 22 without a new deal.
If fighting resumes, he expects oil prices to rise above $100 again, which could quickly put pressure on risky assets. In that environment, the MACD could turn bearish again. And if the CLARITY Act stalls beyond May, he expects XRP will likely give back the move it has built so far, possibly to $1.30 or lower.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com