XRP struggles at $1.35. The market is preparing for a volatile week. And quietly, the Binance data tells a story that the price chart hasn’t yet decided to believe.
A report from Arab Chain tracking supply dynamics on Binance has identified a value that stands out against the current bearish backdrop: XRP’s scarcity indicator has reached 0.59 – the highest level since 2024. That number reflects something specific and consistent. The supply of XRP available for immediate sale on the platform is decreasing and not expanding.
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Coins leave exchanges. Investors are retreating into private portfolios, locking in positions for the long term and removing liquidity from the market’s most accessible selling venue.
The historical context sharpens the meaning. This same indicator was in very negative territory for months, recording its worst readings during the periods of heaviest selling pressure and the peak of foreign exchange inflows earlier in the cycle.
The move into positive territory, and now toward a multi-year high, represents a change in behavior: the sellers who flooded the market are stepping back, and the holders who replaced them are not selling.
XRP at $1.35 looks vulnerable. The scarcity data shows that the floor underneath is quietly being strengthened. One of them will be the first to prove correct.
The salespeople take a step back. The question is whether buyers are ready to take it a step further
Arab Chain’s behavior read of the scarcity data is where the report has the most consequences. A scarcity indicator climbing to its highest level since 2024 isn’t just a supply measure – it’s a behavioral fingerprint. It reflects who currently owns XRP and what they want to do with it.
The answer, according to the data, is that the short-term sellers who dominated earlier in the cycle are being replaced by an entirely different category of participants: long-term holders, who are quietly accumulating, withdrawing from exchanges and removing their coins from the available sales pool.
That shift has a name in market structure analysis. It’s called an accumulation phase, and the scarcity index hitting a multi-year high is one of the clearest signals in the chain. Short-term selling pressure is easing. Investor confidence, at least among those who withdraw coins from the exchanges, is increasing. The balance of the market is tilting towards buyers.
The report is cautious about what comes next. The accumulation thesis only holds if two conditions persist: overall market sentiment continues to improve and stock market supply continues to shrink. If both hold, the conditions for a stronger price movement will build gradually but structurally.
XRP at $1.35 is the price offered by the market. The scarcity data shows that fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell it there.
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The XRP chart hasn’t changed my mind.
XRP is trading at $1.3510, up 1.75% on the day – a green candle that opened at $1.3279, reached $1.3669 and posted modest gains in the afternoon session. On any other chart, a daily gain of 1.75% would be unremarkable. At this point it barely registers the damage that has built up since July.
The daily structure is unambiguous and has been so for months. XRP peaked near $3.90 in late July 2025 and has been on a textbook downward trajectory since then: lower highs in August, October, January and March, with each rally selling at a lower level than the last. February’s capitulation to $1.15, accompanied by the heaviest selling volume on the entire chart, formed the bottom the market is currently defending. That defense has held up. It has not yet become a foundation.
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All three moving averages confirm the structural damage. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA – a death cross on the intermediate time frame – and both are accelerating lower towards the $1.60-$1.80 region. The 200-day MA is falling from around $2.10, so far from the current price that regaining it is a medium-term ambition, not a short-term objective.
Today’s candle is constructive. The trend around it is not. XRP needs a daily close above $1.45 to suggest that the post-capitulation range is building a base rather than forming a continuation pattern to lower levels.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com