Bitcoin plays off a price movement has convinced many traders that October 2025 was the cycle peak. However, an interesting technical analysis shows that the market structure still exists doesn’t look complete. Analyst CryptoAmsterdam has argued that Bitcoin is undergo a temporary correction in a much larger phase. If that reading is correct, Bitcoin could still stage a stronger rally than previous bull markets.
Bitcoin may still be in an unfinished macro bull cycle
Every major Bitcoin bull run has followed a recognizable sequence of five phases: a bull phase, a bear phase, accumulation below the macro range, a disbelief rally back within the range, and finally a parabolic move to new all-time highs. This structure has persisted through the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, with each cycle completing all five phases within a roughly four-year span. The current cycle has not done that.
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According to CryptoAmsterdam analysis, Bitcoin reached a new peak without delivering the characteristic phase 5 parabolic expansion. The chart comparisons he shared comparing Bitcoin’s weekly price action against previous cycles show that the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles each lasted approximately 1,456 to 1,477 days from trough to peak, with phase 5 responsible for the most explosive price movement in each case.
However, that phase occurs structurally absent in the current cycle. Price action has entered a correction period since the $126,000 peak, but the cycle framework is still open based on this reading.
Comparison of price charts. Source: @damskotrades On X
The technical analysis also shows that price action can appear weak on a shorter time frame, yet remain bullish on a much larger time frame. That’s where Bitcoin seems to be now. The chart setup shows that the recent correction is just a mini-cycle correction forming within a broader macro continuation.
This reading becomes more interesting when placed next to gold and alphabet. In both examples, the price also moved up within a larger macro cycle, paused for a mid-cycle correction, and then moved back up once that smaller reset was complete.
According to CryptoAmsterdam, Bitcoin could now do something similar. If the value is correct, then Bitcoin’s current price action is phase 3 of a mini cycle, nested within the larger phase 5 of that macro cycle. Hence the parabolic phase would still be ahead.
Gold And Alphabet Inc. Source: @damskotrades On X
Possibility of a new price high
Another reason for a stronger rally is Bitcoin’s tendency to lag other assets. In recent years, Bitcoin has often printed macro structures similar to large-cap stocks, only with a lag that can reach hundreds of days. That makes Bitcoin look less like the leader of the cycle more like the last participant.
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In particular, technical analyzes show that gold has always bottomed out well before Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin moved higher during gold’s advance in the previous cycle in 2021, but suffered a full mini-cycle correction while gold went straight up. It was only when gold completed its parabolic rally and topped out that Bitcoin took over a vertical move, as shown in the chart below.
Gold and BTC. Source: @damskotrades On X
The next prospect now is that Bitcoin will continue its larger phase 5 move as we saw with Gold and Google (Alphabet Inc.). The expected move is expected to push Bitcoin price to macro cycle highs above $200,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com