Bitcoin is showing tentative signs of stabilization after the $74,000 pullback, but Glassnode says the recovery still lacks the ingredients for a decisive bullish turn. In its March 9 Weekly Market Pulse, the analytics firm described a market that is improving at the margins, even as spot participation, capital flows and broader conviction remain subdued.
from Glassnode Overview is cautiously constructive, but only to a certain extent. The company wrote: “ETF activity remains a relative strength. Net inflows accelerated and trading volumes increased.” In the same breath, however, it emphasized that “overall conditions are stabilizing” while “capital flows remain weak,” a framework that captures the central tension of the report: some internal factors are healing, but the market still appears fragile rather than fully revitalized.
Glassnode sees the Bitcoin market stabilizing
This vulnerability is most visible on the spot markets. Glassnode said the 14-day RSI rose to 47.7 from 45.2, a modest improvement in momentum that points to firmer buyer activity without suggesting the move is overheated. But the more important spot signals moved in the other direction. Spot CVD fell from negative $84.4 million to negative $97.6 million, indicating greater sell-side pressure from aggressive traders, while spot volume fell from $9.8 billion to $9.1 billion. According to the report, participants show less urgency as they wait for stronger directional signals, leaving sellers to play an outsized role in price discovery.
Related reading
Derivatives paint a more complicated picture. Futures open interest rose 5.1% to $29.4 billion, indicating leverage and speculative involvement are recovering, while perpetual CVD rose 201.7% to $172.6 million, a sign of aggressive buying activity in the leveraged markets. At the same time, funding fell sharply to negative $391.7K, falling below Glassnode’s statistical low band and signaling stronger demand for short positions. In other words, leveraged traders are back in business, but they are out of alignment with the direction.
The options markets, on the other hand, appeared less defensive. Open interest rose from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, the volatility spread narrowed from negative 25.78% to negative 17.64%, and the 25-delta skew fell from 16.51% to 11.72%. Glassnode’s interpretation was that fear is waning and demand for downside protection is waning, making options positioning more balanced than a week earlier.
Related reading
The clearest strength remains the US spot ETF complex. Weekly net inflows increased from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume increased from $16.0 billion to $23.1 billion. But even there the signal is not purely bullish. ETF MVRV fell from 1.07 to negative 0.53, putting the average ETF holder underwater. Glassnode said the shift is “consistent with capitulation-like conditions,” suggesting institutional style demand is still coming in even as existing positioning remains under pressure.
Data across the chain tells a similar story of stabilization without renewed heat. The number of active addresses fell 2.0% to 649.3K and rate volume fell 5.1% to $170.5K, both signs of a calmer network environment, while transfer volume rose 23.7% to $5.9 billion. The realized limit change improved from negative 2.4% to negative 1.9%, indicating that outflows are decreasing, but the hot capital share fell to 23.3%, remaining well below the statistical low band. This points to a market still dominated by older capital, with little evidence of new speculative activity.
Profitability metrics improved modestly, with earnings offer increasing from 54.6% to 56.8%, NUPL improving from negative 31.9% to negative 26.7%, and realized P/E increasing from negative 0.8 to negative 0.7. That relieves some of the pressure that built up during the descent.
Still, Glassnode’s broader message is hard to miss: Bitcoin’s market structure looks more stable than it did a week ago, but until spot market demand becomes strong again, the recovery remains tentative rather than convincing.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,755.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com