Bitcoin (BTC) started the week with a sharp recovery, briefly lifting the world’s largest cryptocurrency back towards the $74,000 mark on Wednesday for the first time in more than a month. However, as the week draws to a close, that momentum has dissipated, with BTC sliding back to around $68,260.
Even with the choppy price action, analytics firm Amber Data argues that the broader outlook for Bitcoin remains constructive. In its latest market report, the company suggests new record highs are still possible this year.
Reset after liquidation
Amber data describes Bitcoin will enter 2026 in an unusual position. The market, the report says, has been “de-risked” after the October liquidation event, which it says wiped out excessive debt from the market.
In the report, they claim that open interest has risen to “unsustainable levels,” basic trading has become overcrowded and funding rates reflect tense positioning.
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When headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit the market, the over-indebted structure couldn’t withstand the selling pressure. The result was a cascade of liquidations that wiped out weak hands and reset positioning.
Although painful, the correction served a purpose. Since then, valuations have normalized, leverage has largely disappeared from the system and Bitcoin market structure seems healthier, Amber Data noted.
Yet the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still limited and the carry trade – once a key driver of activity – is no longer particularly attractive. According to Amber Data, the market is now structurally sound, but lacks a clear catalyst to define the next big step.
‘muddling through’ phase
In the base case, which assigns a 50% probability, Bitcoin trades between $90,000 and $120,000. This outcome provides for a long-term consolidation until a meaningful macro-catalyst emerges.
In this “muddling through” scenario, conditions neither deteriorate dramatically nor improve significantly. Volatility decreases, enthusiasm cools and both bullish breakout expectations and bearish predictions of collapses are repeatedly frustrated.
Early signs supporting this scenario include annual interest rates returning to 8-10%, Bitcoin ETF inflows turning consistently positive, order book returning to pre-crash conditions, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory.
25% chance that Bitcoin will break through to $180,000
Amber Data assigns a 25% probability of a more optimistic outcome, with Bitcoin rising between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull scenario, institutional participation accelerates along with sovereign state adoption, creating a feedback loop of growing flows.
Early confirmation signals would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows above $1 billion, the base rate rises above 15% as demand for leverage rises, and new accumulation cohorts appear in the HODL wave data, indicating new capital is coming in on a large scale.
Bear Case is aiming for $60,000
The downside is that Amber Data assigns a 20% probability to a bearish scenario with Bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $80,000. This would happen if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than currently expected and global markets shift decisively into risk mode.
Warning signs include continued ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, a drop in base rates below 3%, widespread redemptions of stablecoins signaling capital flight, and a possible test of the ETF cost basis level at $80,000.
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Finally, the company outlines a ‘volatility and chop’ scenario with a 5% probability, in which Bitcoin trades between $75,000 and $110,000 with no sustained directional trend.
Indicators include highly fluctuating figures financing ratesrepeated peaks and valleys in open interest as positions on both sides are liquidated, and inconsistent ETF flows that alternate between inflows and outflows with no apparent pattern.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com