Bitcoin price resumed its hot start to the new year this week, jumping above the $97,000 mark for the first time since November 2025. The flagship cryptocurrency has reignited debates over the current stage of the market in its latest attempt to regain its six-figure valuation.
After crossing the previously formidable technical level of $94,000, Bitcoin price looked set to cross the $100,000 mark again. However, recent on-chain assessments have drawn attention to an ongoing phenomenon among a specific group of investors in the market.
Bitcoin price action may depend on the price realized by STH
In a Jan. 16 post on the X platform, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost said revealed that the average realized price of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) is another important level to keep an eye on. This price level represents the average price where the most recent (1-3 months) group of BTC investors acquired their coins.
According to data highlighted by Darkfost, this price realized by STH is currently around $102,000, meaning the majority of short-term Bitcoin investors are at a loss. The market expert noted that this particular evaluation has been adjusted to take into account the 800,000 BTC recently moved by Coinbase.
Darkfost noted that as Bitcoin price approaches short-term holders’ realized price, investors are caught between two primary choices. It’s either this group of investors who hold on and hope for further upside potential, or they exit the market once they break even.
Considering that they are the most reactive group of investors, Bitcoin’s short-term holders have not hesitated to take short-term profits, as evidenced by the latest currency inflows. However, Darkfost noted that the price level achieved by STH will be crucial to keep an eye on once all the profit-taking is done.
Darkfost said Bitcoin price trading below this cost basis historically represents a good accumulation opportunity. Nevertheless, the analyst cautioned that periods of bear markets should be ruled out as short-term bondholders often witness prolonged declines and pain this season.
STH cost basis key to re-accelerate momentum
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish agreed in a recent post on X that STH’s average realized price is a major turning point. According to the market expert, Bitcoin price regaining this cost basis would be a signal that recent buyers are making profits again.
Beamish stated that regaining the price realized by STH would be necessary for the bullish momentum to re-accelerate, while failing to do so would leave the BTC market in recovery mode. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is around $95,300, reflecting no significant change over the past day.