Key Takeaways
Is Peter Schiff right when he says gold dominates Bitcoin?
Partially. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by about 25-27% since August, but BTC is still up 17% so far this year.
What causes the divergence?
Gold’s rally reflects demand for safe havens amid geopolitical tensions, while Bitcoin’s correction came from $9 billion in debt liquidations — not fundamental weakness.
Gold’s latest surge to a new all-time high and Bitcoin’s sharp pullback have revived the old debate.
The latest development has led economist and longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff to double down on his criticism of BTC.
Schiff calls a Bitcoin bear market
On October 16, Schiff stated on X that “Gold is eating Bitcoin’s lunch,” and claims that Bitcoin has “priced 32% against gold since its August high.”
The comment comes as gold rose to a new high of nearly $4,300.
Source:
He warned that the ongoing Bitcoin bear market would be “brutal,” and urged investors to “sell your fool’s gold and buy the real gold.”
The comments quickly went viral, racking up more than half a million views and dividing opinion within the crypto community.
Schiff, who has built a reputation for his continued skepticism of Bitcoin and his advocacy of physical gold, has made similar comments during previous market corrections.
How BTC has developed since August
Data assessed by AMBCrypto tells a more nuanced story.
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin is down about 14% in USD since early August. It fell from over $120,000 to about $108,000 after last week’s liquidation-induced sell-off.
Source: TradingView
Over the same period, gold rose sharply, rising roughly 26% from about $3,400/oz to $4,291/oz, according to BullionVault.
Source: BullionVault
Combined, this means that Bitcoin’s value against gold has indeed weakened, but by about 25-27%. The direction of Sciff’s argument remains valid, even if the degree of decline may be exaggerated.
Breakdown of the correlation between BTC and gold
Historical data from Newhedge shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold remains weak and often fluctuates between positive and negative.
While gold tends to rise due to macroeconomic turmoil and falling yields, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta risk asset – in response to liquidity cycles, ETF flows and market sentiment.
Source: Newhedge
That difference has increased since the beginning of October. Gold’s rally was fueled by geopolitical tensions and expectations of a slower Fed balance sheet reduction.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s correction followed over $9 billion in leveraged liquidations, not a fundamental collapse in demand.
Context behind the move
Bitcoin’s recent weakness came despite continued ETF inflows and resilient on-chain data.
Meanwhile, gold benefited from renewed demand for safe havens as individuals and institutions continued to diversify their reserves.
In short, the rise of gold represents a shift towards safety, and not necessarily a loss of confidence in Bitcoin.
The crypto market still has a total capitalization of over $3.8 trillion, indicating that structural trust remains intact.
The bottom line
Peter Schiff is partly right: Gold has outperformed Bitcoin since August, and the ratio between the two has shifted in favor of the yellow metal.
However, describing this move as the start of a “brutal Bitcoin bear market” misses the most important context.
Bitcoin continues to rise more than 17% this year, with long-term holders largely unmoved by the volatility.
For now, gold could win the short-term narrative battle. However, the broader Bitcoin vs. Gold debate, about storing value versus digital risk, is far from settled.