After a slight decline yesterday from its recent highs, Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading in the lwithin the range of $120,000. Meanwhile, BTC’s mining correlation has undergone a significant shift in recent months, indicating a clear change in market dynamics between miners’ behavior and price direction.
Bitcoin Miner correlation becomes negative
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post from Arab Chain, new data from Binance shows that the Bitcoin price and miner flows to the crypto exchange have undergone a significant shift in recent months.
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Specifically, the 30-Day Rolling Correlation indicator has fallen to its lowest level since March 2025. On October 3, this indicator fell to -0.157, the lowest level in more than five months. Since then, the rate has remained close to -0.10.
For the uninitiated, the 30-day rolling correlation indicator measures how closely two variables, such as Bitcoin price and miner flows, move together over the past 30 days. A positive value means they generally rise or fall simultaneously, while a negative value means they move in opposite directions.
It is worth noting that the indicator previously moved within a positive range of 0.1 to 0.5 in the second quarter of 2025. The shift from positive to negative indicates that the recent rise in BTC price has not been driven by miners’ flows to exchanges.
This is in stark contrast to previous cycles, where miner flows to exchanges played a key role in BTC’s price movement. However, the positive price action of the current cycle can be attributed to increased demand from investors and institutions. Arab Chain added:
In previous cycles, when the price rose, miners often transferred larger amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges to sell and take profits, creating a positive correlation between the price and miners’ flows. This means that as prices rose, flows also increased.
Arab Chain added that the decrease in correlation indicates a phase of “price independence,” where miners choose to hold their BTC rather than sell it during times of price appreciation. A drop in the miner signal is usually considered a bullish signal because it reduces the circulating supply of BTC.
That said, if the correlation becomes strongly positive again, it could signal the return of selling pressure and a price correction could be expected in the medium term. Currently, the BTC market shows a healthy balance between supply and demand.
BTC must defend this level
After BTC’s fall to the low $120,000 range, some crypto analysts have lowered the price participation that the top cryptocurrency must defend the $120,600 level to avoid further crashes. However, not all analysts are bearish on BTC yet.
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For example, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes predicts that US President Donald Trump could send BTC to $250,000 by the end of 2025. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $121,375, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com