Important collection restaurants
What happened to Bitcoin during the Cyclustop 2024?
The FED rate in December 2024 coincided with Bitcoin peak at $ 108k. It was followed by a decrease of almost 20% when StHS capitulated.
Can a similar scenario unfold now?
BTC derivatives are overheated and traders are stacking solid long clusters, reflect the 2024 setup.
Bitcoin [BTC] Almost $ 115k floated at the time of the press, right to a key bending point. The Fear & Greed Index on 50 signaled indecision.
Traders are clearly waiting for the Federal Reserve to set up the following directional bias. Interesting is that history gives us hints.
Fed Cuts and Echoes from 2024
The last interest on December 18, 2024 was hit while BTC Mid-Bull ran in the cycle after the elections. However, that catalyst turned a local summit at $ 108k.
The aftermath?
BTC fell almost 20% during a bearish cycle of 12 weeks and the short -term holder (STH) NUPL fell for the first time in more than a year from 0.20 to -0.13.
In short, StH’s capitulated, which indicates a clear exhaustion of Bullish Momentum.
Source: Glassnode
Interestingly, STH NUPL was still floating near the red zone while assessing.
For context, these metric measures StHS ‘non -realized PNL. In short, it tells us or recent buyers profit or bleeding.
As soon as it is red, it often points to capitulation that starts, which tends to feed a sharper disadvantage. During the press, StH Realized price Was near $ 110k. Simply put, that is the Breakeven line.
If BTC glides below, STHS (Mint age <155 days) are more likely to dump. And the chance that that will happen clearly increase.
Bitcoin -Derivatives flash overheated positioning
Bitcoin’s derivative volume absolutely blows past the place.
On September 15, BTC Derivatives clocked About $ 242 billion versus $ 25 billion on the spot. Traders stacked leverage aggressively stacked and came the market heavily to derivatives.
Interestingly, these vibes with the latest cycle of the fed rate reduction.
Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) reached an ATH of $ 72.44 billion on December 18, 2024, exactly around BTCs $ 108k cycle top, which set up a wave of liquidations.
Source: Coinglass
In this context, Binance’s is 24 hours of heat folder marked A thick long liquidity cluster, with traders who put $ 85.97 million on leverage around $ 113,652.
This shows that the market has an overexposed lungs.
Source: Coinglass
That means that a blow-off top of 2024 style is not off the table.
With STHS at Breakeven, overheated derivatives and clustered liquidity, the circumstances seemed to be on a set -up for forced long squeezing before attempting an outbreak.