- The price increase of Bitcoin meant impressive growth, but warnings for a potential distribution phase have arisen.
- Retail and institutional investors led to the demand, with important indicators that indicate future volatility.
After a remarkable increase of more than 129% in the past year, Bitcoin [BTC] has crossed the $ 100k, which announces many analysts in the late stages of his bull market.
While the price increase indicates impressive growth, Experts are starting to warn That bitcoin could enter the early distribution phase, a typical precursor of the last part of a bull run before the market experiences a cooling period.
As the market sentiment shifts and important indicators indicate potential volatility, the question arises: are we witnessing the peak of this rally, or is there still room for further profit before the inevitable correction?
Insight into market cycles with Dow theory
The Dow theory offers a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s current market position by dividing market movements into two important phases: accumulation and distribution.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed this cyclical pattern. In 2022, BTC underwent a clear distribution phase, characterized by a decrease in prices after the bull’s running of the previous year.
Source: Cryptuquant
By the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin entered a battery phase when investors tried to rebuild positions at lower price levels.
This battery phase extended until 2024 before he moved to the current early distribution phase in 2025.
Technical bending points, characterized by changes in volume and price structure, have historically seen these transitions.
The attached Bitcoin price and volume card clearly illustrates this progression, which shows the cycles of accumulation and distribution.
The role of retail and institutional investors
A remarkable characteristic of the current market phase is the renewed involvement of retail investors.
Although Bitcoin has reached his milestone of six digits, the participation of the retail trade continues to grow, which stimulates liquidity and demand in the market.
In the meantime, institutional players remain crucial in shaping Bitcoin’s process. The continuous pro-cyclical purchase program from MicroStrategy emphasizes this dynamic.
At the beginning of 2025, the company added 10.107 Bitcoins to its balance, which brought its total possession to 471,107 units.
Such significant purchases signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long -term potential and act as a leading indicator for market sentiment.
Bitcoin: price structure and space for growth
Despite the introduction of the distribution phase, the current price structure of Bitcoin suggests that the market is far from overheating.
We are in the late phase of the #Bitcoin Bull Market, but I believe there is still room for growth. I would say that we are in the early distribution phase, while new retail investors arrive. The global promotional impact of Trump could extend this bull run for a few quarters.
According to Ki Young Ju, the financing speed of Bitcoin remains relatively low, the mirror levels last seen in the summer of 2024.
This indicates that the market is not overly use and supports further discovery of the bargain price.
Bitcoin’s ‘fair price’, calculated by a Power Act FIT, is $ 87.99k and serves as a crucial level of support.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2025–2026
As long as the prices remain above this threshold, the bullmarkt remains intact.
Analysts also point out that stable macro -economic conditions can create opportunities for further price increases before the inevitable correction.