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Bitcoin is facing a challenging start to 2025 with a $100,000 rejection. Notably, Bitcoin has failed to stay substantially above the $100,000 price level since it first broke through in early December, and multiple breakouts have been followed by rejections. The most recent rejection came last week when the price peaked at $102,000 on Monday, before reversing sharply and falling to $92,000 on Thursday.
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This ongoing tug-of-war has brought the bearish situation for BTC into sharper focus, with technical analysis indicating a 50/50 chance of a further decline or a jump.
$90,000: A critical support zone under threat
Recent Bitcoin price action has significantly increased the price from $90,000 the most notable level of support for the bulls. While the crypto has largely held above the $90,000 support level even during the recent corrections, the bearish outlook hinges on its ability to defend this level.
According to technical analysis crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO Bitcoin took five different tries to test a supportive trendline around $90,000, further demonstrating the importance of the level. This repeated retest increases the chance of weakening support strength and gradually makes Bitcoin more vulnerable to a sharp decline.
With this in mind, the main task for Bitcoin bulls would be to hold above $90,000 and break the resistance levels above $100,000 to negate a bearish outlook. Should Bitcoin fall below $90,000, it could lead to a further price drop towards the $87,000 range or even lower. A drop below $87,000 could in turn trigger a rapid decline through a $12,000 hole to reach $75,000.
Resistance levels to break: $103,000 to $108,500
As noted by EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin could continue to pose a bearish threat until it closes above a few resistance levels. These resistance levels are located at $103,000, $106,400, and $108,500, and consistent daily closes above these thresholds are required to confirm a bullish trend. The third resistance at $108,500 is the most notable, as a break above it would take Bitcoin trading to new all-time highs.
According to EGRAG CRYPTO, current technical indicators suggest that the chances of a pump are currently low. For example, Bitcoin has now lost support from the 21 EMA on the daily candlestick timeframe, and Sentiment is now in a neutral zone on the fear and greed index.
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As it stands now, the biggest factor that could see bullish momentum returns to Bitcoin is Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration on January 20 and the expected crypto-positive policies that during the new government. EGRAG CRYPTO notes that the event could either trigger a short-term rally or worsen the ongoing decline. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,400.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView