XRP has arrived a new phase in its growth as Spot XRP ETFs begin trading in the United States. The excitement around institutional access to XRP has been growing rapidly in recent weeks, especially as documents and inflow reports indicate increasing interest from funds preparing to increase their exposure.
A market commentator known as Chad Steingraber presented a projection showing how intense ETF accumulation could become if issuers adopted an acquisition strategy similar to what was seen in Bitcoin ETFs. The estimates paint an aggressive accumulation period that could reduce the available supply of XRP much faster than many expect, and here are the numbers.
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An analysis of Steingraber’s projection
from Steingraber examines the first scenario a modest but stable accumulation model where 12 Spot XRP ETF issuers acquire an average of 3 million XRP per day. His projection is based on focusing on the average rather than trying to predict which fund will accumulate the most the combined impact is which ultimately matters for the market price of XRP.
Under this setup, daily inflows would reach 36 million XRP. Over a standard five-day trading week, that accumulation would amount to 160 million XRP. Over the course of a month, the amount absorbed by ETFs would increase to 720 million XRP. This one projection implies that as much as 8.64 billion XRP could be withdrawn from public circulation and locked up in ETFs by the end of a full year.
Of course, these numbers just take that into account the possibility of consecutive net inflow days and no net outflow days. While these numbers are hypothetical, the pace is consistent with early patterns seen in Bitcoin ETFs, where strong averages across issuers created sustained demand for Bitcoin.
A more aggressive scenario based on recent activity
In another post, Steingraber offered a more powerful accumulation model using the activity of Bitwise’s Spot XRP ETF as a benchmark. This is evident from data the Bitwise XRP ETF received inflows of approximately 5.82 million XRP on its first day of trading. In this second scenario, the expected daily acquisition rate is doubled to approximately 6 million XRP per issuer.
If 12 funds follow this pattern, the combined accumulation could reach 72 million XRP every day. If we extend the same five-day cycle, the weekly total would rise to 360 million XRP, while the monthly totals would reach approximately 1.44 billion XRP. Over a full year, this more aggressive model ends up with 17.28 billion XRP absorbed into ETF products.
“The entire public supply of XRP will be gone UNLESS THE PRICE GOES ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH,” Steingraber said.
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The projections serve as a wake-up call on how quickly XRP’s supply ecosystem could change once ETF inflows stabilize and larger issuers like Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, CoinShares, Franklin, 21Shares and WisdomTree is participating in the action.
However, BlackRock, that one oversees the largest Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have yet to make any move on a Spot XRP ETF. The company August had confirmed that it has no immediate plans to apply for one.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView