- BTC may reflect 2020 price trend. Is a post-COVID pumping scenario in store?
- Analysts at QCP Capital predicted that the recent BTC dip could be short-lived
Since peaking above $73,000 in March, Bitcoin [BTC] has been consolidating for six months and fluctuates between $50,000 and $70,000. However, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, the current price is changing mirrors are Pattern 2020.
“Bitcoin is currently around $50,000-$70,000 over the last six months and is somewhat reminiscent of BTC which traded around $7,000 – $10,000 from mid 2019 to early to mid 2020.”
After breaking through the $7,000 – $10,000 price range in 2020, BTC closed the year at nearly $30,000, tripling its value. In 2021, BTC peaked at $69,000, more than double its value at the end of 2020.
As Seyffart highlights, 2020 and 2024 share more than just similar price patterns. They also share BTC halving events that have historically been associated with massive rallies.
Is a Parabolic Rally Likely for BTC?
Although historical performance does not determine future outcomes, history always rhymes. Most market cycle analysts still argue that BTC’s post-halving rally is still on the horizon.
One of the analysts, Luke Martin, shared a similar analysis to Seyffart’s and predicted a likely pump after the choppy market of the summer.
“Yes! Very similar setup to mid/summer 2020. Volatile market after halving, consolidation during uptrend, cycle low ~1.5 years ago.”
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Similar post-halving forecasts have also been made newest a price target of $200,000 per BTC by 2025.
That said, BTC has rallied in recent days despite positive signals from the Fed about a possible policy turn toward rate cuts. The world’s largest cryptocurrency recently rose above $64,000 before plunging below $60,000, causing confusion among investors and analysts.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that a massive BTC dump on centralized exchanges from some major wallets caused the mid-week drop.
“There was increasing inflow of #Bitcoin to spot exchanges just before today’s sell-off (first chart).”
Source: CryptoQuant
On the contrary, QCP Capital analysts revealed that given the positive macro outlook, the current downward pressure could be short-lived before the next rise begins.
“We believe that any dip in stocks (and crypto) will be short-lived. With Powell and the Fed poised to kick off a rate-cutting cycle, increased liquidity will ultimately push risky assets higher.”