New Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions suggest that the leading cryptocurrency could cross the $140,000 mark before the end of October. Based on historical data and advanced empirical models, a crypto analyst has confirmed that the likelihood of Bitcoin ending the month above this key level appears increasingly likely.
Bitcoin Price Set for Major October Rally
According to a price forecast shared by crypto analyst and economist Timothy Peterson on X social media, Bitcoin’s trajectory in October seems promising. Its AI-based simulation chart also suggests that half of the month’s profits have already been realized.
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The empirical model, which is based on data from October 2015 to 2024, reveals a 50% probability that BTC could end the month above $140,000, representing an increase of around 15% from current levels of around $121,000. Furthermore, the model indicates a 43% probability that the Bitcoin price will end below $136,000 within the same time frame.
Peterson’s chart shows observed daily prices through October 2025 and a projected range extending into early November. The model’s average forecast, shown by the blue dashed line, suggests a gradual increase from the $120,000 mark to the $140,000 mark. The 68% confidence interval remains comfortably positioned above $130,000 for much of the forecast period.
The model also includes a 95% confidence interval, shown by the wider orange band, which highlights the full range of likely outcomes. It suggests that Bitcoin has only a small chance, around 5%, of ending below $110,000 and above $170,000 in October.
Interestingly enough, Peterson noted in an earlier post from October historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. His analysis highlights that specific days within the month, including the 9th, 20th and 28th, have been bullish 71% of the time, while the 29th has seen gains 78% of the time since 2015. This historical trend of increases in October adds weight to the analyst’s bullish Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that recurring patterns could help propel the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs soon.
Long-term BTC setup supports steady growth towards $200,000
In another report, Peterson presented a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s long-term price structure since 2022. While he made it clear that he is not a fan of traditional technical analysis, he emphasized his belief in repetitive market cycle patterns. The graph shows Bitcoin’s price movement within two parallel red trend lines, showing a consistent upward trajectory since then the bottom of the market.
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Within this framework, several green upward segments indicate recurring phases of rapid price appreciation. Under this cyclical model, Bitcoin remains firmly within an established growth channel. A potential increase to $200,000 is forecast within the next 170 days. Peterson assigned this bullish scenario a “better than 50/50 chance,” suggesting that current market structure and historical recovery patterns indicate the case of continued Bitcoin Price Rise Well Into 2026.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com