Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a remarkable decline and erased the profit that it achieved after the recent decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED) to lower interest rates.
After rising to nearly $ 118,000 – only 5% shy of being all time high– The market has had to deal with renewed uncertainty. Despite this setback, experts emphasize that the long -term prospects for Bitcoin remain optimistic, mainly since September 21 is approaching a date identified as crucial for Bitcoin’s price process.
Will September 21 mark the start of a new bull run?
Market analyst Timothy Peterson highlights That Historically Bitcoin ended higher the year after 21 September 70% of the time, with a median increase of more than 50%. He has called this date ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’, which suggests that the chance of a price increase is considerably favorable.
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Peterson notes that two of the three decline in the history of Bitcoin took place during established bear markets in 2018 and 2022, conditions that do not reflect the current market situation. This makes him believe that the chances of a price increase are closer to 90% this year.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s track record suggests that it has an almost perfect opportunity to keep his winnings six months after September 21. Peterson estimates that there is at least a probability of 70% that Bitcoin will no longer fall below $ 100,000.
Analysts warn of ‘Sell the News’ Bitcoin phase
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Cryptocurrency Exchange Bitget, also points to the recent 25-based point reduction by the FED as a factor that initially increased the price of Bitcoin, which pushed it short above $ 117,000. This reduction, the first in nine months, reflects increased liquidity in the market.
However Lee warnings That the median projection of only 50 basic points in total cuts for the year can temper part of optimism, which introduces potential volatility, because traders adjust their strategies.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a dip from 5% to 8% the following tariff reductions before resuming the upward trend, which sells a possible phase “sells the news” in the coming days.
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Despite these fluctuations, Lee Bullish remains over the macro-economic environment and claims that lower revenues on money market funds (MMFs) are likely to lead capital to alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies.
He emphasizes the role of Bitcoin as a hedge in this risk-up climate, especially with around $ 7.2 trillion that is currently being held in cash-like instruments.
Looks ahead, Lee predicts that the Cryptocurrency Can consolidate in the short term before the prices are targeted between $ 123,000 and $ 150,000, if additional tariff reductions will be released.
Analysts at BitFinex also share a positive prospect that projects with three expected tariff reductions by the end of the year and steady inflow into Trade-treated funds (ETFS), Bitcoin could reach between $ 125,000 and $ 135,000 by the end of the year.
However, they also warn that if the inflation or economic growths of the Fed to continue with further cutbacks, Bitcoin could stabilize within a range of $ 110,000 to $ 115,000 as institutional participation and ETF activa under management offer a solid floor.
Featured image of Dall-E, graph of TradingView.com