Gold and silver soared to new all-time highs this week, creating a financial divide that paves the way for Bitcoin’s potential catch-up rally.
According to the gold price factsGold reached an all-time high of over $4,600, with industry experts predicting a rise above $5,000. At the same time, silver has surpassed $90 and the market cap has surpassed $5 trillion for the first time.
Market analysts noted that the price movements of these precious metals reflect a dominance of ‘hard assets’, with investors fleeing sovereign debt risks amid growing global macro uncertainty.
Taking this into account, Bitcoin, which is widely regarded as ‘digital gold’, has also made a solid start, crossing the $95,000 mark for the first time in the past 24 hours this year.
However, its run has been more muted than that of the precious metals.
To some observers, that slowdown isn’t so much a warning sign as a known rotation. They believe that Bitcoin tends to follow the momentum of hard assets with a lag, and that a mix of timing signals and institutional flows could pull it towards six-figure prices.
Bitcoin lags behind gold
The main technical argument for an impending Bitcoin rally rests on statistical evidence that gold prices act as a leading indicator for the crypto market.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, highlighted a specific correlation that suggests the current metals rally is in fact a signal of the next move in digital assets.
His stance focuses on the concept of ‘Gold to Bitcoin Rotation’, a scenario he believes remains firmly in play amid the current market trajectory.
Using Granger causality tests, Dragosch pointed out that gold tends to lead Bitcoin by about four to seven months.
This lag period means that the institutional capital flowing into gold as a safe haven will eventually turn into Bitcoin as risk appetite adjusts within the hard asset framework.
Additional data from Bitcoin analyst Sminston With supports his view.
According to With, historical data reveals a recurring pattern in which gold bull runs precede Bitcoin breakouts.
He pointed out that the current technical setup shows gold entering a vertical price discovery phase, while Bitcoin is in the early stages of a corresponding shift.
This divergence is consistent with Dragosch’s rotation thesis and suggests that the explosive move in gold is currently “charging” the spring for the cryptocurrency market.
If the trend of decreasing lag times continues, the period in which Bitcoin can close the valuation gap is likely to be shorter than in previous cycles, confirming the urgency seen in recent institutional flows.
ETF plays
In addition to statistical correlations, the fundamental picture for Bitcoin supports the thesis of an impending breakout.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, challenges the popular narrative that the 2025 gold peak was a sudden response to immediate demand. Instead, he argues that price formation was a function of the depletion of supply that developed over the years.
According to him, the catalyst for the modern gold run began in 2022, when central banks’ purchases of gold rose from around 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes per year following the US seizure of Russian government deposits.
He pointed out that these purchases fundamentally tilted the balance between supply and demand, but that the price did not immediately reflect this shift. During the period, gold prices increased by only 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023 and 27% in 2024.
However, it wasn’t until 2025 that the gold price went parabolic, rising 65%. Hougan explains that the initial huge demand from central banks was met by existing holders willing to sell their gold. So the value of gold only increased after those sellers finally “ran out of ammunition.”
Hougan applies this exact framework to the current state of the Bitcoin market. Since US spot ETFs debuted in January 2024, they have consistently purchased more than 100% of the new Bitcoin supply issued by the network.
However, the price of the flagship crypto has not yet risen vertically as existing holders are willing to sell into the ETF’s aggressive accumulation. Indeed, CryptoSlate previously reported that long-term Bitcoin holders were among the biggest sellers of the top asset over the past year.
Taking this into account, Hougan argues that the price of BTC will rise when the supply of willing sellers is eventually exhausted, just as happened in the gold market.
When that depletion point is reached, the supply-demand mismatch will likely force a parabolic repricing, similar to gold’s performance in 2025.
Macro factors and the Fed crisis
Meanwhile, the catalyst for gold and silver’s rise provides further evidence that Bitcoin will follow suit. The metals market has reacted to a serious test of confidence in the independence of the US Federal Reserve.
Reports of criminal investigations into the Federal Reserve’s leadership have shaken confidence in the stability of the dollar and the neutrality of monetary policy. This uncertainty has turned global capital into assets immune to political interference.
Gold acts as the main safe haven during such crises and responds immediately to news. Bitcoin, often seen as a ‘risk-on’ safe haven, typically reacts with a delay as investors first secure their defensive positions in the precious metal before allocating them to digital stores of value.
So that ‘confidence premium’ that currently lifts gold to $4,600 is the same fundamental driver underlying the investment case for Bitcoin.
Now that the initial shock of the Fed news has been absorbed, the market is expected to look for assets with similar scarcity and independence, but with greater upside potential. Bitcoin fits this profile perfectly, providing a convex hedge against the high sovereign risks currently roiling traditional markets.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin investors looking ahead have identified specific price levels that could act as a catalyst for the catch-up trade.
In the options market, that positioning is shifting, but it still points to a market focused on upside breakpoints.
Facts from Deribit shows that BTC traders have built bullish exposure through short-term call options, including $98,000 calls on January 30 and $100,000 calls in February.
This week, some of that short-lived optimism was swept away. Still, some older January $100,000 calls were rolled over to March $125,000 calls, indicating that some traders are keeping the bullish view but spending more time on it and aiming higher.
These bets can create what traders call a “gamma magnet.” As Bitcoin’s spot price approaches this level, market makers who have sold options are forced to buy the underlying asset to hedge their exposure.
This buying pressure can create a feedback loop that quickly pulls prices higher, sometimes exceeding fundamental targets.
If the correlation with gold holds and the four-to-seven month lag disappears, as Dragosch suggests, analysts believe Bitcoin is targeting a move toward $120,000 to $130,000 in the near term.
This would represent a percentage gain similar to recent moves in silver, which tends to outperform gold during the latter stages of a hard asset bull run.