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Recession risks and macro uncertainty are currently again at the center of the market discourse, with Bitcoin -20% falling compared to its peak. Nevertheless, macro analyst Tomas (@Tomasonmarkets) claims that the broader economic background is not as terrible as some headlines suggest, although certain data sets at the beginning of 2025 have pointed to weaker growth.
“Doesn’t look very recession for me?” Tomas wrote in a recent after On X, following the skepticism that he has maintained for months. He pointed to specific indicators who started sliding in February, but started to stabilize. According to his analysis, American growth nowcasts that have already deviated from various real-time measures of economic growth “in February for three weeks.” He also referred to the Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), which follows how real economic data relates to consensus forecasts. Since January, the CESI had been in a recession, which implies that data releases came under expectations, but it has also been stabilized in recent weeks.
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“Falling CESI = data that comes under expectations, rising CESI = data that exceeds expectations,” explained Tomas and emphasized the meaning of the index for market sentiment. The result is that, although markets became increasingly defensive during the weakness in the early year, these indicators no longer deteriorate at the pace that is observed at the beginning of 2025.
Why Bitcoin mirrors summer 2024
Tomas then focused his attention on parallels between the current environment and two remarkable episodes from the past: the Turbulence of the Summer 2024 and the Route of the end of 2018. He underlined that at least the global markets encountered a sharp drawing that was caused by what he called ‘growth/recession fears’ combined with other exogenous.
“For me, the two recent authorities that are most similar to today in terms of both price action and macro background, summer 2024 and at the end of 2018,” he wrote. In the summer of 2024, concern about growth plus a widespread Yen Carry Trade Trade Drappe contributed to a marking of 10% stock market. At the end of 2018, an escalating trade fight during the first Trump rate led in a similar way to a first correction in shares of around 10%, which eventually became deeper into another 15% pullback.
Now, with stock markets that recently also suffered a peak-to-trough decrease of 10%, Tomas sees various echoes of those historical moments. He noted that such parallels extend to Bitcoin, which fell by around 30% at the end of 2018 in the summer of 2024 and 54% – the slide of 30% passed this time. The question, he asked, is which path lies for us: will the market follow the relatively enclosed summer 2024 correction, or will it spiral in a painful chain of losses similar to the extensive sale of the end of 2018?
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“So which way?” Asked Tomas, underlines the uncertain moment that both crypto assets and shares are confronted. His attitude tends to expect a scenario that is more related to the summer of 2024 than on the Tumult of 2018. In his words: “I am still in the camp that rates will not be as bad as many expect – I have been here for months,” a position that he believes that they also declare the somewhat surprising resilience in risk assets. He suggested that “some sounds in the past few days may indicate this outcome, which is probably the reason why risk capacity has jumped today”, although he would no longer claim a definitive solution.
According to Tomas, various factors reinforce the matter that the landscape of today is closer to the summer of 2024 than at the end of 2018. One of them is the recent relaxation of the financial circumstances, which had been tightened earlier this year but has since been moderated. Another is the remarkable weakening of the US dollar in recent weeks, a stark contrast with his climb in 2018 that intensify the sales pressure on global assets.
Tomas added that most leading indicators still support a continuous expansion of the business cycle, a position that he thinks is less reflected in the contractor signals that investors rattled almost seven years ago. Another contributing element, he noticed, is the generally favorable season pattern for US stock indices, which often come back after a weak February and find a stronger footing mid -March. Finally, tight credit spreads – still under their highlights that are seen in August 2024 – point to stable credit markets that do not seem to be praising in serious economic need.
In addition to the issue of macros signals, Tomas openly admitted fatigue with the swirl of discussions on economic policy catalysts. “To be honest, I’m really bored with all the tariff discussions,” he wrote, reminds followers that April 2 will remain crucial for clarity. “April 2 ‘Tariff Liberation Day’ will probably play a major role in deciding,” he concluded.
At the time of the press, Bitcoin traded at $ 86,557.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com