Goldman Sachs Vice -Chairman Robert Kaplan believes that the American labor market is even worse than the baneng data.
Kaplan, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, says CNBC in a new interview that the low unemployment figures do not tell the entire labor story because the general labor pool is shrinking due to the immigration efforts of President Trump.
“I have been saying for a while that accepting the speed can be stored. That is true in recent months. The reason that the unemployment rate is so low is not that companies are shooting; they are not, but they also do not take on and we lose employment supply due to immigration policy. You have to look at more than just the unemployment of unemployment to understand the labor market.
The labor market is weaker than the headline unemployment suggests, and the reason is that companies do not hire again. The assumption is very slow and it just doesn’t look as bad as it could, because the offer also decreases. ”
He also believes that the FED can announce a rate reduction during the next meeting in September.
“If I were in my former chair, I would tilt very seriously to think about cutting in September. There are cross flows, and here is why I say tilt. We are more than 2% inflation. Whether we like it or not, increase the rates …
It has been some time since we were in a situation that we were in the risk of not meeting our mandate of employment, and we have trendy inflation above trendy …
And so this weakening, if it persists, this means that I have to take more risk, and my gamble is that this will mean that I will do a serious look at cutting 25 basic points in September. But I would warn that this does not mean that we will start a rate cut cycle after September. If we cut, wipe the slate clean and look fresh in November. “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tobcojaiida
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