- The realized volatility of Bitcoin fell to 23.42%
- Volatility compressions from the past have often led to sharp pimples
Bitcoin is in the news today after the volatility of a week had fallen to 23.42%, with the same now approaching historical lows. In the past four years, this level has only been broken a handful of times, especially in October 2024 [22.88%] and November 2023 [21.35%].
Such a low volatility has preceded important market movements historically, making it an important statistics to look at.
Bitcoin’s volatility compression – a precursor of large movements?
The realized volatility chart indicated that the volatility of Bitcoin has fallen steadily since the end of 2024. At the time of writing it flashed a lecture around the 23% zone.
Historically, sharp contractions in volatility have led to large price fluctuations in the charts, which often makes the stage for pimples.
Source: Glassnode
Periods of oppressed volatility tend to build pressure in the market, leading to strong movements in both directions. Previous examples of similar compressions were followed by bullish peaks, especially when BTC acted near important technical levels.
An analysis of the volatility graph confirmed this and shows the price that trends up when the volatility breaks these key levels.
Bitcoin’s current price trends and market sentiment
Bitcoin traded at $ 96,450 at the time of the press and showed a slight profit of his earlier levels.
The 12-hour price diagram showed that BTC had difficulty keeping above its 50-day advancing average [$98,186]But remained above the 200-day advancing average [$97,764].
Source: TradingView
Moreover, the Bollinger tires were sharpened, which further strengthens the idea of an approaching price movement. The choppiness index was on 48.53, which suggests that the market was not yet in a strong trending phase, but was approaching the end of its consolidation period.
Bitcoin’s next steps
With realized volatility that approaches historical lows, the market is probably preparing for a decisive movement. If BTC maintains support of around $ 96,000 – $ 97,000, an outbreak above $ 98,500 could activate further at the top momentum.
On the other hand, if BTC fails to maintain its current levels, the support can re -test around $ 94,000 before any considerable recovery.
Investors and traders must look forward to volatility expansion signals, in particular by broadening Bollinger Band and an increased trade volume. This helps to confirm the direction of the next big move.