Key Takeaways
Has Bitcoin’s price increase kept pace with the decrease in supply due to halvings?
Yes, and then some. Bitcoin’s price growth has exceeded the decline in supply in all five halving periods.
Do miners today earn more or less than miners in 2020?
Current miners earn 3,125 BTC per block [$340,000] Already, more than 2020 miners have earned double the amount of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin miners today earn just 3,125 BTC per block – 93.75% less than the 50 BTC they received in 2012. Yet they are richer than ever.
This counterintuitive reality reveals one of Bitcoin’s most fascinating economic features: less BTC has consistently meant more prosperity.
The Bitcoin numbers tell the story
Historical data from Unleashed shows a clear pattern across Bitcoin’s five halving periods. Each era has ended with block rewards worth more in dollars than when it began, despite miners receiving half of the BTC halfway through.
Era 4 [2020-2024] shows this perfectly. Miners started earning 6.25 BTC per block worth $54,000.
They ended the era earning the same 6.25 BTC, but worth $398,000 – an increase of 637%. Bitcoin’s price increase completely overshadowed the supply reduction.
Source: Unchained
The current Epoch 5 continues this trend. Block rewards started at $199,000 [3.125 BTC]. With Bitcoin now trading around $109,000, those same 3,125 BTC blocks are worth around $340,000.
We’re only a few months into a four-year era, but block rewards are already up 71%.
This means that a miner making 3,125 BTC per block today is making more money than a 2020 miner making double Bitcoin. [6.25 BTC] at the start of era 4.
Why Traditional Economics Misunderstands Bitcoin
The standard logic of scarcity suggests that a 50% reduction in supply should reduce sales by 50%. Bitcoin defies this. Instead, miners who survive the initial halving shock often see a 300-600% increase in revenue by the end of the era.
This creates a unique mining economy. When the halving occurs, miners face an immediate 50% drop in revenue.
However, those that weather the storm typically become more profitable within 12 to 18 months as the price of BTC adjusts to the new supply dynamics.
Miners are selling despite record rewards
Recent data on the chain adds an intriguing twist. Glassnode shows that miners distributed Bitcoin at a rate not seen since the FTX collapse in September and October 2025.
These heavy selling occurred while miners were earning the most valuable block rewards in BTC history.
Source: Glassnode
Several factors explain this: profit taking after BTC tested $125,000, operating costs that required constant hardware upgrades, and publicly traded mining companies realizing profits for shareholders.
The timing, just before Bitcoin’s correction from $125,000 to current levels, suggests that some miners have successfully timed a local top.
What comes next
If the patterns hold, Epoch 5 could end up with block rewards of more than $1 million per block, even though miners only receive 3,125 BTC. This would require Bitcoin to reach $320,000 or higher by 2028.
The crucial question is sustainability. Each halving requires larger price multiples to maintain the pattern.
Epoch 2 needed a 55x increase, Epoch 3 needed 13.5x, and Epoch 4 needed 7.4x. As BTC’s market cap grows, these multiples become harder to achieve.
However, increasing institutional adoption, potential government bond purchases, and BTC’s maturing role as a store of value could provide the necessary demand for several more eras.
The bottom line
While miners are making 93.75% less Bitcoin than in 2012, they are making hundreds of thousands of dollars per block.
For fifteen years, spread over five eras, less has meant more at BTC. Whether this remains the case depends on BTC’s ability to continue appreciating faster than its supply decreases – but so far the paradox remains strong.