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Ostium Labs argues that the upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact after the August reversal, but it draws a bright red line at $ 98,000. In its market front views on 1 September, the company writes: “Closing $ 98k on this time frame would be weekly structure Bearish,” adding that “more than $ 98k weekly structure is still bullish and that is why we have to anticipate the formation of a higher low.”
During publication time, Ostium referred to BTC around $ 108,017, with the monthly candles of Augustus setting “strong red” after the wicking through the record to around $ 124.5k and close to earlier resistance support around $ 108.2k.
Most important bitcoin -prize levels to watch now
On the monthly graph, Ostium sees no proof of a cyclical top in 2021 style. The memorandum recognizes some momentum divergence on RSI, but emphasizes the absence of confirmation of the great oscillator: “AO has continued to point to building momentum in the upward trend … I don’t think this is even comparable to the top formation of 2021.”
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The bear case only reinforces if September “under 2025 is opened for $ 93.3k and therefore under the local trendline support.” For the Bullishpad, the team that finds support “above the annual open, but probably much higher around the July at $ 105k” and “Ideally” De Month Groen “above August open for $ 115k”, a configuration that according to them would “set us up for expansion beyond the highlights in October.”
Weekly structure, through the lecture of Ostium, “did not show exhaustion of the move higher” and has now reset to 50 on RSI, a profile that, according to the company, supports the continuation of the trend. Should the market cut a higher layer and reclaim Momentum early in September, a weekly close “Back above $ 112k to a Hertest of the opening of Augustus Open and potentially $ 117.5K in FOMC in FOMC with a retest of the highlights before the end of the month.”
The daily age of time remains the obstacle in the short term. Ostium characterizes the pullback as ‘orderly’, with supports turned to resistance on the road down and ‘the most important level … of course the $ 112k in advance of all time’, which served as support at the beginning of August and then ‘recovered resistance’ on the leg of last week lower.
“An outbreak and close to the trendline and back above $ 112k would look like the soil is located,” they write. A failed probe – “wick above the trendline in $ 112k and reject” – would the price for a deviation from “the June open for $ 104.5k, with the 200dma under that of $ 101.3k the most important question.” In derivatives, Coinglass Liquidatie Heatmaps for BTC/USDT pair of Binance for a week and a month, closed liquidation tires show laminated above $ 114k -cap and below the $ 120k region, while no significant levels are visible to the disadvantage.
With a macro-heavy week in front of the bow-ISM prints, Jolts, the beige book of the Fed, Jobless Claims, ADP, ISM services and on Friday non-agricultural wage lists, Eastium-based setups. For lungs they prefer proof of exhaustion in support: trendline resistance respected, “today’s low” removed via a liquidation wick in June-open/200-day cluster and bullish divergence that forms there before offering a move back to the weekly open and the $ 112k-hertest. For shorts, they prefer a sharp early week to press in $ 112k “with trend exhausting … which did not eliminate the low of today around $ 107k”, the doll faded back in weekly low points with risks if it unfolds for NFP.
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Ostium also investigates positioning, pointing at Snapshots about VELO and Coinglass, three months on an annual basis, and the mix between Bitcoin and Altcoin open interest, as well as a week and a month of liquidation cards. While the remembrance of head claims on those dashboards, the technical levels of the note are in line with the most concentrated liquidation density that is visible in the attached heatmaps, where stacked interest rates remain in the vicinity of the $ 112k Pivot -overhead and layered by the $ 101k.
DXY as a tail wind for the BTC price
The report extends beyond Bitcoin. The dollar background, in the context of Ostium, remains a headwind for BTC to the end of the year. With DXY around 97.2 the company says that the current order rhymes with earlier cyclical drawings and expects: “Dxy will break under 96 and pushes to at least 94.6, but probably 93”, where a soil formation could rise above the 200-month trailing average. The secular Dxy Bull case is not rejected; On the contrary, Ostium situates the current leg as the last cyclical downswing before a recovery with a higher layer and multi -year, depending on policy results. A decisive monthly recovery of 100 would invalidate the Bearish Dxy image in the short term.
About assets is the passage line of the september card of Ostium clarity about thresholds. For Bitcoin, a weekly loss of $ 98,000 would be the first structural break of the cycle; A daily recovery of $ 112,000 would strongly claim that the local low point is located; And a monthly impact above $ 105,000 with a closure of more than $ 115,000 would make fresh highlights in October.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 110,610.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com