Spot ETH ETFs have 50% chance of approval in May: Bitwise, Grayscale, Galaxy execs

Executives from three asset managers agreed on this during a meeting February 13 panel discussion that ongoing spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% chance of approval in May.

Matt Hougan, Global Head of Research for Bitwise Asset Management, says

“I think it’s likely that we’ll get an ETH ETF fairly soon. I think the chances are 50/50 in May… “

Steve Kurz, Global Head of Galaxy Asset Management, agreed that there is a 50% chance of an Ethereum ETF being approved by May. He also predicted a 75% chance by the end of 2024.

Dave LaValle, Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale, also posted a 50% approval rating in May. As to whether Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the event of a rejection, LaValle said: “We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. We have to look at the facts.”

Grayscale previously forced the SEC to review its spot Bitcoin ETF filing through legal action. The SEC cited the case as a reason to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

The 50% probabilities expressed by each executive are broadly consistent with other predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou thinks there is a 50% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF will be approved in May. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart – a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who hosted today’s panel discussion – has predicted a 60% approval rating. Finally, a Polymarket forecast market suggests the approval probability is 48% by the end of May.

Eight companies plan to offer an ETH ETF

Of the three companies mentioned above, only Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have a spot Ethereum ETF application pending with regulators.

Other spot Ethereum ETF applicants include VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC must approve or deny VanEck’s application by May 23. Although it will not necessarily approve the fund, it is likely to decide on other similar applications at the same time.

There is currently no spot Ethereum ETF in the US market. Bitwise currently offers two Ethereum futures ETFs, which offer no exposure to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale offers an Ethereum Trust and an Ethereum Futures Trust, both of which it plans to convert into ETFs. Many other asset managers also offer Ethereum futures ETFs.