On February 4, 2026 Bitcoin [BTC] came under pressure. At the time of writing, BTC was down 3.14% over the past 24 hours, trading at $76,246.31, already falling short of test levels according to many analysts.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg Crypto, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said observed,
“Bitcoin shouldn’t have behaved like this. Something went wrong. I think we’re nearing the bottom, but we’ll see.”
Crypto Community Responds
The crypto community also responded to Novogratz’s analysis, with one user on noticing,
“Absolutely. When big players like Novogratz start signaling the ‘bottom area’, it’s worth paying attention. BTC’s volatility isn’t broken – it just shakes out weak hands for the next move up.”
Joining the fray, another X-user emphasized the four-year market cycle and added:
“Based on the good old four-year cycle, it is absolutely intended to do this.”
Factors responsible for the demise of BTC
That said, this market downturn is not random. It’s part of Bitcoin’s usual cycle that follows every halving. After the April 2024 halving, 2025 brought strong growth, as in previous cycles.
Bitcoin rose to a record $126,000 in October 2025. But now, about 22 months after the halving, the market has entered the correction phase.
During this period, early investors often take profits, causing prices to fall. At around $76,000, Bitcoin is now almost 40% below its peak, reflecting previous corrections following economic growth.
Broader economic pressures have amplified the decline. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have rattled global markets, causing investors to prefer safer assets like gold and reducing demand for riskier investments like Bitcoin.
In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates, especially following the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, has further tightened liquidity.
Amid this uncertainty, another X user banged ask a question, ask,
“Is there really a revival coming?”
What do technical indicators indicate?
As Bitcoin goes through this volatile phase, technical indicators offer some cautious optimism. While the MACD is still trending bearish, the RSI has fallen to a deeply oversold level around 27 at the time of writing.
Source: trading view
In the past, this often preceded a short-term recovery.
This sharp sell-off may have gone too far, too fast, opening the door for a possible rebound towards $80,000.
Bitcoin’s dominance to cling almost 60% is another encouraging sign, indicating that investors are keeping their capital in Bitcoin rather than abandoning the crypto market completely.
Still, experts remain divided on the prospects, and opinions are divided on whether the recovery can be sustained or whether more negative consequences lie ahead.
Analysts’ mixed expectations for Bitcoin
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks the market is close to bottoming and expects a recovery later this year. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research is more cautious. He warns that if current levels break, Bitcoin could fall to $56,000.
Nansen’s Aurelie Barthere adds that future price movements could depend on changes in US monetary policy. Overall, 2026 will be a test of patience for investors.
Whether this is just a temporary shakeout or the start of a longer recession is still unclear.
Much depends on how Bitcoin holds the $74,000 support level in the coming weeks, which could determine the direction of the market for years to come.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s current pullback closely mirrors the post-halving corrections from previous market cycles.
- Oversold RSI levels suggest selling pressure could ease, even as MACD continues to signal weakness.