Journalist
Posted:
- Solana is expected to deploy Firedancer in early 2025, which could increase SOL’s value.
- However, there is a $2 billion SOL unlock from FTX estate in March.
Solana [SOL] made a huge comeback in 2023 and 2024, from $8 to a high of $264. However, analysts have a mixed outlook for the altcoin in 2025.
The bullish camp, led by Mert Mumtaz, founder of Solana-based development platform Helius, believes that new validator client software Firedancer and ETF approval could be major catalysts.
SOL’s Bullish Catalysts
For the unfamiliar, the Firedancer client is designed to process 1 million transactions per second (tps) under optimal conditions.
It will also increase the reliability of the network by having another validator client in case any problems arise.
Interestingly, since Christmas Day, the market became more optimistic about the approval of SOL ETFs in July 2025, as illustrated by Polymarket chances increase from 58% to 71%.
Source: Polymarkt
So the ETF prospect and Firedancer could increase SOL’s value. However, a token unlock of over $2 billion in March 2025 should also be considered.
$2B SOL unlock caveat
As one of the main backers of the Solana chain, FTX’s 2022 bankruptcy was the main reason SOL crashed to $8.
As part of the bankruptcy restructuring, Galaxy Digital and other investors acquired most of the FTX estate’s defunct SOL holdings at a discount.
However, they would remain locked for a while and the first unlock will happen in March 2025.
Source: Messari
Messari facts showed that 11.2 million SOL tokens, worth more than $2 billion, will be unlocked by March 2025. This could cause selling pressure in the market.
Furthermore, SOL has underperformed Ethereum [ETH] in December, a trend that some experts predicted could continue into the first quarter of 2025.
One analyst even stated that ETH could offer better gains than SOL, citing the weakening SOL/ETH ratio, which tracks the relative price performance of SOL versus ETH.
He said,
“Solana is fantastic, there’s no denying that, but the risk to reward is simply not there in 2025 compared to ETH.”
If SOL/ETH rises, SOL is considered to outperform ETH and vice versa. As of this writing, SOL/ETH has retreated to the channel’s low range; a break below that could trigger more capital flows from SOL to ETH.
Read Solana [SOL] Price prediction 2025-2026
Source: SOL/ETH, TradingView
However, a decisive SOL/ETH bounce above the channel lows could provide SOL with an additional lifeline in 2025.
In short, SOL’s 2025 outlook appears to be at a crossroads, with major bullish catalysts and headwinds.