As Bitcoin continues to underperform in Q4 2025, investors have had multiple reasons to offload and shave off their holdings. Among these investors is a particular cohort, the short-term holders (STHs), who have faced the heat for an extended period of time.
STH MVRV in deep red for 60 consecutive days
In a recent post on the X platform, market quant Burak Kesmeci said revealed an interesting perspective regarding current market conditions for Bitcoin’s most reactive investors – the short-term holders. Kesmeci’s post revolves around the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric.
For context, this metric compares BTC’s market value to its realized value, thus serving as a means of tracking whether Bitcoin’s short-term investors are making an average profit or loss.
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A value lower than the neutral “1” level generally indicates that the STHs are in the red. Depending on the depth of this value, this could also foreshadow capitulation events. On the other hand, values above 1 show that short-term investors are making profits. The higher the value, the more likely profit-taking events will follow.
In his post on X, the online expert shared that the STH MVRV has been in deep red territory for 60 days. Kesmeci explained that the short-term investors of the flagship cryptocurrency are now facing the highest level of “patience test” they have ever experienced in 2025.
In particular, prolonged periods of negative MVRV values are often correlated with increased market stress. Being the most reactive investor group in the market, Bitcoin price could witness the effect of capitulation-induced sell-off.
However, the opposite is also possible. In the scenario where bearish pressure completely subsides, prolonged negative numbers could be a sign of impending market stabilization.
Bitcoin remains below the SMA of 111 days – what this means for the price
To add more weight to his on-chain revelation, Kesmeci also followed up with an important technical observation on Bitcoin’s price action. According to the analyst, Bitcoin traded below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) during the same period.
This alignment between on-chain and technical analysis thus functions to reinforce a clear narrative; Bitcoin is currently in a consolidating or corrective phase. This contradicts the belief that the leading cryptocurrency is at the beginning of a significant uptrend.
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From a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s future trajectory is not entirely clear. Macro events, in addition to renewed demand in the spot market, could be crucial for the cryptocurrency in the future.
This market phenomenon could determine whether BTC plunges deeper into the downward spiral or begins its recovery trajectory. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $87,380, with no significant movement in the past day.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView