New data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in the polls after Robert Kennedy Jr. had suspended his presidential campaign.
According to the crypto casino, which allows users to bet on the outcome of anything, Trump now has a 51% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, while Harris – who took over as Democratic candidate from Joe Biden last month – saw her chances drop to 48%.
“This market will decide ‘Yes’ if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will decide ‘No.’
The resolution source for this market is Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. This market will be resolved once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
If all three sources do not call the race for the same candidate before the inauguration date (January 20, 2025), this market will resolve itself based on who is inaugurated.”
The data shows that more than $705 million in bets on the election have been placed through Polymarket to date.
RFK Jr., a Democrat who ran as an independent, recently announced he would suspend his campaign after polling just 2%. He supported Trump.
In July, bettors on Polymarket predicted about a 6 in 10 chance that Biden would hold on for the remainder of his presidency despite dropping out of the race and endorsing Harris.
Weeks earlier, the market predicted a 35% chance that Biden would drop out of the race. He retired on July 21.
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Featured image: Shutterstock/Tithi Luadthong