Bitcoin is poised to end 2025 in the red if it fails to close above $94,000 on New Year’s Eve.
The oldest and largest cryptocurrency is down 5.7% in 2025. During the Christmas week, the value showed moderately, while the US stock market recovered to new highs.
And traders are now cautious, with some fearing the price has been muted Bitcoin The performances can last until early January.
Short-Term BTC Caution
According to Options’ Analytics platform LevitasThe short-term positioning implied choppy markets, with a preference for downside protection among advanced players.
This was illustrated by the drop in the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (RR, orange) in one week, which underlined the renewed demand for hedging or puts (bearish bets).
Source: X/Laevitas
In fact, all maturities (1 week to 1 year) were negative, implying that institutions preferred hedging over betting on a sharp upside or breakout scenario.
For a positive shift in market sentiment and renewed bullish momentum, the 25-Delta RR would need to move back to 0 or turn positive.
According to the Singapore-based crypto trading desk QCP Capitala firm direction for BTC could be formed following liquidity returns.
“With open interest down about 50% post-expiry (December 26), conviction remains limited. Capital is being sidelined and direction is likely to wait until liquidity returns.”
Institutional demand for BTC is declining
The cautious positioning in the options market also reflected a similar trend in institutional demand. The American Spot ETF appeared at the end of 2025 outflow hit a total of $5.5 billion – the highest since their debut in 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, the outflow appeared to be caused by hedge funds exiting their positions after lucrative returns on basic trading fell by half from 10% to 5%.
In fact, cumulative inflows into the ETFs were just 9% lower than the October high of $62 billion. Put another way, despite the fourth quarter pullback, there is still some long-term conviction among most ETF holders.
Source: Bloomberg/Galaxy Research
That said, the market crisis in the fourth quarter of 2025 has been accelerated by several factors, including the October 10 crash and the MSCI index revision of BTC government bonds.
With the risk of the MSCI strategy being scrapped still high at +75% in the first quarter of 2025, the market could remain within a certain range until the outcome in mid-January.
In turn, BTC has remained below $90,000 since mid-December, with an overhead resistance at $94,000. This lateral structure may extend into early January.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Final thoughts
- Options traders were betting that BTC’s selloff might have subsided, but the $85k-$94k price range could extend into early 2026.
- ETF outflows hit a record $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, but long-term conviction remains.