Key Takeaways
Why Does Bitcoin Rotate to New Investors?
LTHs have sold 1.4 million BTC since March, redistributing supply across ETFs, government bonds and new market participants, further decentralizing ownership.
What pressures are short-term investors currently facing?
STHs are selling at heavy losses, with SOPR near zero, indicating capitulation but also a potential medium-term reversal zone.
Bitcoin is in one of the most bearish phases in a long time. From its all-time high, the asset is down about 31%.
This drop has sparked debate over whether it marks the start of a broader bear market based on the way Bitcoin [BTC] moves between different holder cohorts.
AMBCrypto’s analysis examines what long- and short-term holder behavior, as well as institutional adoption, could mean for price direction.
Selling pressure from long-term holders remains high
Long-term holders, typically defined as those who have held BTC for more than six months, have put significant pressure on the market.
Since March 2024, these investors have sold at historically high levels, with data from Alpharactal showing one of the largest sell-offs.
Source: Alpharactal
Data also shows that long-term OG holders – by size and duration of their holdings – have changed their behavior and sold portions of their BTC at least four times since March 2024, marking a major change in pattern.
This selloff comes amid shrinking profitability, with a realized price of $38,600, while short-term holdings have remained relatively more profitable in the recent cycle.
Is this bad for Bitcoin?
The recent distribution of long-term holdings is not necessarily negative for Bitcoin.
To assess this, AMBCrypto compared long-term holders’ reserves against institutional Bitcoin purchases since March 2024; the same year the wider sell-off began.
Data from March 3, 2024 to November 24, 2025 showed that long-term holders sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, worth approximately $121.17 billion at the time of writing.
Source: Bitbo
Meanwhile, assets under management of US Bitcoin Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) rose from $42.77 billion on March 1, 2024 to $120.82 billion on November 24, indicating that institutional investors have accumulated approximately $78.05 billion worth of BTC.
This creates a net shortfall of approximately $43 billion between LTH sales and ETF purchases.
However, Bitcoin treasury holdings – now spread across 134 entities – amount to 1.686 million BTC, worth about $145 billion.
Using similar calculations, this suggests a net positive inflow of $102 billion into Bitcoin to date, excluding the activities of retail and short-term holders.
What do short-term holders do?
Short-term holders have entered a peak drawdown phase, indicating exhaustion and a lower incentive to continue holding.
The Short-Term Holder SOPR has hovered around zero, a zone historically associated with potential reversals.
Source: CryptoQuant
Supportive macro conditions are needed for a sustainable recovery. This includes improving sentiment towards risky assets, possible interest rate cuts and a weakening US dollar.
Globally, liquidity has remained relatively stable between $25 trillion and $50 trillion and has yet to show a strong impact on the crypto market, reducing the likelihood of an immediate liquidity-driven rally.
Interestingly, this near-zero reading of the STH-SOPR has historically been followed by a rally, at least in the medium term.
If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could regain the $90,000 region, especially if supported by the influx of traders pricing back into risky assets.