Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin near a market top or still mid-cycle?
Bitcoin is still in a mid-cycle phase, with healthy on-chain signals and no signs of euphoria.
Are altcoins making a recovery?
Altcoins are extremely oversold, with potential for a short-term recovery.
Bitcoin [BTC] appears to be holding steady in a healthy mid-cycle phase, trailing liquidation with strong accumulation trends. Meanwhile, altcoins are still struggling, showing how oversold the market has become.
With anxiety reaching extreme levels, could a strong recovery be on the horizon?
We are still halfway…
At the time of writing it is Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio was at 2.0 – a level indicative of a mid-cycle phase.
What this implies is that while most investors are banking on profits, the kind of hype and overvaluation that marks cycle peaks is not yet present. LTHs are not rushing to sell, foreign exchange outflows are stable and institutional flows are helping to support the market. All this means healthy consolidation.
Source: Cryptoquant
If history is any guide, we may be closer to the middle of this cycle than the end.
A contrarian opportunity?
Think about this: only 10% of altcoins on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day moving averages, leaving them all drowning in fear. These extreme levels of disinterest have often been solid entry points before a short-term recovery.
Source: CryptoQuant
Experts believe that previous cases of this setup often involved temporary recovery during the current cycle. The current climate could indicate the formation of a counter trend. However, any potential shift would likely depend on broader sentiment, liquidity conditions and project-specific fundamentals.
BTC remains stuck under resistance
After recovering from the sharp decline, BTC’s price struggled to gain momentum above $115,000 on the charts.
In fact, the data underscored the hesitation, as sellers are still active near that zone. The RSI indicated weak buying pressure, while the DMI lines suggested the bears could have a slight lead as the -DI was just above the +DI.
Source: TradingView
Unless Bitcoin can reclaim $115,000 on stronger volume, a consolidation between $110,000 and $115,000 seems likely. Overall, the charts indicated cooling momentum, but not a complete trend reversal – a typical pause in a mid-cycle market phase.