A macro analyst explains what he believes is a strong case for a Bitcoin bear market.
In a new YouTube update, Luke Gromen say he doesn’t think ‘nuclear printing’, or extreme money creation by governments and central banks, will happen next year.
“The economy is highly dependent, as we’ve talked about ad nauseum, and everyone knows Bitcoin because the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity is the stock market crisis. Bitcoin is the stock market crisis and since the deflationary pressure from AI and robotics is exponential, as Jeff Booth has brilliantly pointed out many times, anything less than nuclear printing is effectively tightening.
It won’t be enough to offset the exponential deflation that will aggressively manifest itself as the stock market crashes in price and Bitcoin falls in price. Then you add to that the fact that US technology is starting to face challenges regarding capital costs, AI supply chain network limitations, etc. and in some cases some Chinese competition. And the fact that Bitcoin trades as a high-beta technology stock, when you add that factor in, those are essentially two reasons why we’re negative on Bitcoin in the short term. We don’t think nuclear printing will happen in 2026.”
However, the macro guru also says that BTC is a safe bet in the long term.
“To be clear, I still like Bitcoin long term. I just think that deflation, I still think deflation will lead to a crisis and I still think there will be nuclear printing at some point in response to that crisis. But there is a sequence of operations here that I was wrong about, honestly, until about a month and a half ago, a month ago when we went negative on Bitcoin. in terms of I thought they would be quicker with the response and they haven’t been and I don’t think they will So my opinion is that I can buy back the Bitcoin I sold cheaper. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I was way too cute.
But this Bitcoin is the equity tranche in a highly indebted system that will experience the deflationary pressures of AI and robotics growing exponentially. I don’t think many people look at it that way anymore. And I think they will look at it that way in the coming months.”
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