A JPMorgan executive suggested on January 12 that securities regulators are equally likely to approve or disapprove a spot Ethereum ETF in the coming months.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director of JPMorgan, told The Block:
“In our opinion, for the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in May, it would have to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to bitcoin) rather than a security… This is far from given, and I wouldn’t give more than a 50% chance that the SEC Classifies Ethereum as a Commodity Before May.”
He added that the SEC “still indicates that it is so continues to consider all other cryptocurrencies outside of bitcoin as securities.”
Panigirtzoglou’s comments refer to a statement from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) on January 11.
There, Gensler said the latest approvals only affect ETPs containing Bitcoin (BTC) and identified Bitcoin as a non-security item. Gensler added that the approvals should not signal the SEC’s views on the securities status of other crypto assets; he also claimed that the “vast majority of crypto assets are investment contracts” and therefore subject to federal securities laws.
Other sources predict approval chances as high as 70%
Despite Panigirtzoglou’s low approval estimate, some sources are posting higher odds of an upcoming spot Ethereum ETF approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted a 70% chance of such approval in May.
One prediction market on Polymarket suggests there is a 57% chance of an Ethereum ETF approval by May 31. These odds are based on over $15,000 in cryptocurrency bets rather than an individual’s personal stance.
Predictions largely focus on May, as the SEC must rule on a spot Ethereum ETF application from VanEck by May 23. Other applicants, including BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, ARK Invest and Invesco Galaxy, have also applied for spot Ethereum ETFs, but with later decision deadlines.
The SEC approved a number of ETFs in October 2023, including Ethereum futures, but has not yet approved a spot Ethereum ETF.
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