- Altealth season could have already started, because there may be no direct bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation
- Money has begun to flow from memecoins and could all go to Altcoins
At the time of writing, the Altcoin market capitalization and the CEX volume ratio seemed to present some compelling insights. Not only did the Altcoin market hood rose after $ 1.5 trillion, but the volume ratio of Altcoins and Bitcoin was 2.7x – a sign of an upcoming altar season.
The walk indicated that Stablecoin holders have shifted to Alts, instead of converting BTC directly into Altcoins. Interestingly, however, this is not a simple altern season driven by the Dominance of BTC. It is rather driven by trade volume, which marks a shift in market behavior.
Although the influence of Bitcoin on Altseasons is traditionally determined by the dominance of the market, the current trend is that trade volume is the new barometer for Altcoin interest rate.
Source: Cryptuquant
However, the idea of an always season can be deceptive. Although trade volumes are enriched for Altcoins, this rise is selective, with only certain segments from the Altcoin market.
This may mean that although some Altcoins see considerable profit, others may not benefit from the same level of investors enthusiasm. This selective enthusiasm hinted on a more nuanced, perhaps less robust altisage season than in earlier cycles, where an increasing tide lifted all the boats.
What does money flows into?
Following the Futures Open Interest for Memecoins such as Pepe, Bonk and Wif underlined various trends. The sharp decline of the Futures open interest for Bonk and Wif, and a moderate precipitation in Pepe suggested that capital may go away from these memecoins.
Pepe’s interest in particular peaked at around $ 1.20 billion before he descended. Bonk and Wif saw highlights of around $ 600 million and a subsequent decrease, which reflect potential shifts in investor sentiment.
Source: X
This could imply that investors funds are again increased to more traditional alts, looking for stability or new opportunities.
Conversely, this exodus may not point to alts a complete pivot point, but it can indicate a wider market settlement or a retreat to Fiat or Stablecoins. Especially considering the last drop.
Why does Altcoin Season Index have to turn around?
The Altcoin seal index, sitting at 33, indicated that the market can approach a soil instead of being in the middle of an altealth season. This index is a measure of Alt performance against Bitcoin -A value above 75 means an Altcoin season, while lower than 25 indicates a Bitcoin season.
Altcoins are currently performing under comparison with Bitcoin, as evidenced by the position of the index far below 75 threshold.
For a shift to an altealth season, a ongoing walk in Altcoin force is required compared to Bitcoin. Such a walk should push the index up to or after 75.
Source: Coinglass
On the other hand, if the index drops further, it could refer to persistent Bitcoin -Dominance, possibly driven by investors warning for more established assets.
Looking at a trend removal in the index will be the key to anticipate a potentially altical season.
