Key Takeaways
To what extent has institutional demand for BTC decreased?
Weekly ETF inflows have fallen from over 10,000 BTC to under 1,000 BTC.
Can BTC Hold More Than $100,000?
Only if institutional demand increases at this level, otherwise the support could be cracked.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin [BTC] is cooling down, derailing hopes for recovery. According to Glass junctionBlackRock’s weekly inflows have fallen to just 600 BTC over the past three weeks.
This marks a sharp decline from previous rallies, when BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF attracted more than 10,000 BTC per week, a staggering 90% drop that is now weighing on Bitcoin’s recovery.
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin treasury firms, led by Michael Saylor’s strategy, are not bidding aggressively as in previous weeks.
Beyond the LTH selling pressure
So far, some analysts have pointed the finger at long-term holders (LTHs) and early investors who have paid off their debt.
But more down to earth prospects From some angles, it appears that BTC is maturing and could consolidate in a post-IPO style in the coming months before climbing further.
However, from a chain perspective, the medium-term prospects remain cautious. According to Julio Morenohead of research at CryptoQuant, there was not enough demand to offset the current selling pressure at the current price level.
“Is there enough demand to meet the supply at higher prices? For the past few weeks the answer has been no and that is why we see prices falling.”
Source: CryptoQuant
In the long term, however, Moreno noted that demand was growing, albeit at a slower pace.
That said, the negative apparent demand signal in 2024 and 2025 coincided with local bottoms for BTC. Will history repeat itself?
According to Singapore-based crypto trading desk, QCP Capital, such an outcome was 50/50. In a market update, the company says noted,
“As BTC continues to consolidate in a multi-month period reminiscent of pre-breakout 2024, speculation has arisen as to whether this cycle is nearing its end. Whether this marks the start of a new crypto winter is unclear.”
At the time of writing, one of the key cycle peak indicators, the MVRV Z-Score, had not yet overheated, indicating that this cycle peak had not yet occurred. Instead, the past value spikes to three marked recent local highs.
Source: Glassnode
If past trends repeat, a spike above 3 could potentially signal a potential market peak. Meanwhile, BTC extended its correction to $104K at the time of writing.