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In a video entitled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: Big Moves Ahead”, Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), imposed a radical perspective on where growth and inflation trends seem to go, why the upcoming cycle seems more related To 2017 than 2021, and how Bitcoin could be prepared for a remarkable top if its historical relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index and the global liquidity is true.
Forcast: Bitcoin Macro Summer is coming
Bittel explained that macro “summer” is the dominant regime that he sees himself unfolding during 2025, which means that the growing momentum absorbs, while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to prevent excess. He underlined that “the business cycle is still puffing”, pointing to improving the global production data and to the fact that more countries have shifted to expansion consumption. Although slight fluctuations continue to exist in some indicators, including bags that look briefly on a delay, Bittel remains convinced that they do not mark the start of a new macro “fall” with persistent growth relationship and rising inflation. Instead, he suggests that this headwind will be short -lived, given a general environment in which global financial circumstances come loose.
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He emphasized the deterioration of the American bond returns and the recent weakening of the dollar as factors that make “more cowbell” of central banks possible. The bond returns of China have also collapsed, which Bittel sees as an important signal that Beijing can offer extra liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating. He described this combination as an ultrasound of 2017, a year in which a softer dollar and lower interest rates contributed to a revival in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.
Regarding inflation, Bittel dissected why shelter and other service -related costs are such important laggaarden. He noted that more than a third of the heading CPI is linked to housing, which “usually lags behind house prices with about 17 months” and pointed out that the inflation of the reception still keeps the official CPI figures increasing. He expects that this dynamic will give the play area of central banks to further illuminate monetary policy as soon as they see the data reject. Although some cyclical forces, such as raw material prices, can push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasizes that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will probably retain sufficient flexibility to prevent the constant economic rebound.
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When discussing Bitcoin, Bittel went up in the role of the business cycle when stimulating too large price movements. He remembered that when the ISM index barely floated over 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrency passed by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro image filled out abruptly as soon as an collaboration and liquidity peaked, cutting the cycle briefly and closing Bitcoin’s run of about 8x of its first pivot from the recession. Today’s background looks equipment differently. Bittel noted that “the in collaboration with is now just above 50”, which contrasts with the increase in the Late 2020-Early 2021 which raced almost in the 60s from the low 40 to the mid-60s.
He added that “if we are right about the weaker dollar and a pick -up in global liquidity”, the path of Bitcoin could be more like the elongated revival of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021. Although Bittel was not a precise price objective for Bitcoin, he referred to the historic precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 as soon as the cycle got a grip. His caution was clear – he repeatedly stated that these movements are never guaranteed and that “I am not telling you that Bitcoin is going 23x”, but he also emphasized that in every earlier crypto -run, persistent force in the business cycle turned out to be “the magical Gift that continues to give. “He is of the opinion that the foundation has been set for an extensive Upswing, but has reminded everyone that 20-30% instructions are inevitable, even during powerful rallies.
He also noted that “once you understand where the economy goes, you understand where assets are going”, and repeated that liquidity, especially from China, could be an even larger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses. Bittel strengthened the point and said that “historically the biggest peaks in Bitcoin took place when the ISM rises and we are in Macro summer.”
He also emphasized that any withdrawal in Bitcoin should not be made for macro regime shifts in the short term. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial circumstances, remain in force, although he reminders to expect and remain patient corrections. In his words: “It is never a straight line”, and it can feel “the end of the world” in some weeks. But given the parallels until 2017 and the persistent slide in the dollar, he believes that the runway for Bitcoin – and other risk assets – still seems relatively long.
Although Bittel’s presentation also approached wider market segments, such as raw materials and cyclical shares, Bitcoin got a special focus. By explaining why the GMI macro framework still signals optimism, Bittel emphasized that “dips are to buy”, provided that investors keep a close eye on signs of a deeper structural delay. He emphasized that “no one should forget that if you sign up for Bitcoin, you sign up for volatility”, but with the business cycle just started his rise and liquidity conditions that get grip, there can be enough room for Bitcoin to move past The previous peaks if the data continue to promote cyclical expansion.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 97,710.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com