Over the past few hours, Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000 amid a new wave of liquidations as January approaches a rather volatile end. Analysts at Kobeissi Note that three notable liquidation events have occurred in the last twelve hours, resulting in a combined loss of $1.3 billion.
Such developments, coupled with a highly fearful market following last week’s price drop, have pushed Bitcoin below a key price level. According to renowned market expert Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s behavior towards this $80,000 price zone has significant implications for the market trajectory.
Bitcoin is sliding below the ETF realized price as downside risk increases
In a recent one X messageBurak Kesmeci outlines the technical and on-chain importance of the $80,000 price level for the Bitcoin market. Before Bitcoin’s recent collapse below $80,000, the asset had retested this zone twice after the correction phase that began in early October 2025.
Each successful rebound from these retests reinforced $80,000 as a critical support level, with certain chart formations even indicating a potential trend reversal. This underlined the market’s technical sensitivity to this level before the recent loss. However, Kesmeci emphasizes the importance of the $80,000 price point on-chain as it also acts as the cost basis of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs. Therefore, the recent price drop below $80,000 puts a large cohort of institutional investors at risk of unrealized losses.
In January 2026 alone, Bitcoin ETFs witnessed massive levels of withdrawals, resulting in total net outflows of $1.61 billion. However, these numbers are likely to rise further as a sustained price decline below the ETF cost basis is expected to trigger widespread panic-induced redemption among investors. In addition to the on-chain and technical importance, Kesmeci also notes that $80,000 currently acts as the true market average.
What next for Bitcoin?
According to Burak Kesmeci, a bearish scenario would require a weekly close below the $80,000 support level. If this is confirmed, the analyst warns that bearish momentum could intensify, potentially sending Bitcoin down to $72,000, $68,000, and finally $62,000 in sequence. This is because these levels align with notable volume profile clusters, which represent potential areas where liquidity could accumulate and price temporarily stabilize.
Conversely, Kesmeci notes that in a bullish scenario, a sustained recovery from current levels could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls. The first major upside hurdle is at $90,000, followed by the 111-period Simple Moving Average (SMA111) near $95,000, which is described as a crucial level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal.
A decisive break above the psychological resistance at $100,000 would further strengthen the bullish situation and signal a possible resumption of the broader uptrend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $77,832, reflecting a loss of 7.1% in the past day.