Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has a “possible” path to surpass gold in market value – but “not fast”.
In a detailed message on social media, Timmer explained his vision with the help of a graph in which the projected growth of gold and Bitcoin was compared over time.
He noted that if gold continues to grow in his historically composite annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-a trend that has been seen since 1970 and follows Bitcoin on a power curve Power Act or the S-Curve growth model of the internet, the two could come together within the next 10 to 20 years.
Timmer wrote:
“If Bitcoin grows with the rate that is suggested by these two models, then hard money will probably win the race, which suggests that gold will appreciate faster than 8% per year. So my gamble is that gold will always be the quieter older brother or sister of Bitcoin.”
The prediction is much more careful than predictions that are shared by other market leaders such as Galaxy and Strategy founder Michael Saylor.
Institutional momentum
Timmer’s comments come in the midst of considerable volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin fell below $ 84,000 again on 28 March, which corresponds to a decrease of around 33% against gold since the peak of December.
The price struggle comes as inflation problems and trade tensions continue to weigh on risk activa in the midst of the modest market sentiment. In the meantime, gold continues to reach new all time, which strengthens its long -term role as a safe haven.
Despite the price fall in Bitcoin, large institutions continue to trust in the active show. On March 27, Fidelity and BlackRock brought a combined $ 89 million in Bitcoin ETFs, led by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), who saw $ 97.1 million in inflow.
The ongoing capital injection indicates that the growing institutional conviction in the long-term perspectives of Bitcoin-Even as a price action in the short term sketches a bearish image.
Saylor sees $ 500 trillion market capitalization
While Timmer offered a measured take, Strategy founder Michael Saylor recently presented a much more aggressive prediction.
Saylor predicted at the DC Blockchain -Top on March 28, predicted that the market capitalization of Bitcoin could rise to $ 500 trillion because it absorbs value of traditional assets such as gold, real estate and even sovereign wealth.
Saylor argued that Bitcoin replaces “20th-century assets” with a digital, decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative. He compared the shift to historical changes in monetary systems – such as European colonizers who introduced coins in societies that used beads or shells.
Saylor added that the US has the “opportunity to grab 25% to 30% of the global Bitcoin value as soon as the” dust adjusts “from this assets reorganization.
Yet the debate is clearly shifting. As more institutional money and long-term models project exponential acceptance, the conversation is no longer whether Bitcoin belongs in the same conversation as gold but when and under what circumstances it could catch up.
For the time being, Timmer van Fidelity insisted on caution and said that the flipping is ‘possible’, but gold-stable, quiet and tested-still holds the upper hand.