The most recent episode of the Bankless podcast discussed the potential benefits of authoritarian regimes in the 21st century. The argument stems from the idea that the Chinese and Russian governments allocate significant resources to promote their narratives, while the US government takes a more hands-off approach.
In the episode, hosts Ryan Sean Adams and David Hoffman explore whether authoritarianism could defeat liberal democracies, with insights from economist Noah Smith and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
The effectiveness of authoritarian regimes as a threat to liberalism
Smith argues that in the late 20th century, liberal democracy was hailed as the optimal model of society, epitomized by Francis Fukuyama’s ‘The End of History’ thesis. However, recent developments have called this triumphalism into question. The rise of China, perceived weaknesses in the US and the transformative impact of the Internet are at the center of this reassessment.
The role of the internet is crucial. Smith argues that liberal democracies have historically excelled at gathering information through markets, elections and public debate. The Internet’s ability to centralize large amounts of data may reduce this advantage. Authoritarian states can now leverage this data to gauge public sentiment, allocate resources more efficiently, and respond quickly to unrest, as evidenced by rapid policy shifts in China following the 2022 “White Paper” protests.
Furthermore, the Internet promotes information anarchy, which makes it easier for misinformation to spread. This scenario complicates governance in liberal democracies, where politicians spend significant time countering false narratives and raising funds, which detracts from effective governance.
Buterin elaborates on this and compares the information landscape to Thomas Hobbes’ concept of a ‘war of all against all’, in which monopolistic control over stories could provide the only stable equilibrium. This metaphor highlights the potential for authoritarian regimes to exploit the Internet’s capacity for data aggregation, turning a tool designed for liberal empowerment into one that strengthens centralized control.
Counterarguments for the efficiency of authoritarian regimes
Smith and Buterin then explore counterarguments. Smith draws a parallel with the printing press, which lowered information costs and led to greater liberalism and social fragmentation rather than authoritarian dominance. He wonders why the Internet wouldn’t follow a similar trajectory.
However, Smith explains that the current situation involves non-linearities. Initially, reducing information costs through technologies such as the printing press and the telegraph strengthened liberal democracies by improving the aggregation of information. As these costs approached zero, the benefits leveled off, while the costs of disinformation and information warfare increased exponentially.
Buterin adds that centralized systems often excel at extraction rather than production, and can potentially outperform more liberal systems in zero-sum conflict. He emphasizes that defining success solely by economic output could overlook the broader impact on human flourishing.
Buterin then discusses the fundamental differences between the digital world and the physical world, especially in terms of defense mechanisms. Digital defense mechanisms, such as encryption and decentralized platforms, provide robust protection without physical analogues, indicating an inherent resistance to totalization of control in the digital sphere.
Furthermore, Buterin notes that the fragmentation of the Internet into smaller, more specialized communities could mitigate the negative effects of information warfare. These fragmented spaces often maintain higher conversation quality compared to large, chaotic platforms like Twitter.
Buterin stated:
“Twitter is the worst thing you see, and it’s the worst precisely because you can see it clearly when you think about private group chats, for example.
Private group chats consistently maintain a higher level of quality and a high level of productive discourse on smaller social media platforms, whether it’s Farcaster or whatever, they maintain a higher level of discourse.
He then pointed to a 2022 article by Smith discussing how the internet wants to become fragmented.
Smith recognizes this point and agrees that reducing reliance on broad, controversial platforms could reduce the social costs associated with information tournaments, allowing for more constructive and focused discussions within smaller, more cohesive groups.
Despite these reassurances, Smith expresses concerns about the global reach of authoritarian influence, especially through sharp power tactics. He highlights how China uses economic power to influence foreign companies and governments, blurring national boundaries in the digital space. This ongoing cross-border information war poses a unique challenge that differs from traditional physical conflict.
How blockchain can save democracy
During the discussion, Noah Smith asked whether blockchain technology could enable secure communications between citizens in authoritarian states like China and Russia. He wonders if there are ways for people to talk about political issues freely and anonymously, bypassing government surveillance and censorship.
Vitalik Buterin responds by highlighting the work of a company called Rarimo, based in Kiev. It developed a tool called ‘Freedom Tool’, which uses ‘zero-knowledge proof’ technology to allow Russian citizens to prove their citizenship and participate in online voting without revealing their identity.
This system ensures that the results are tamper-proof and visible, creating a form of anonymous, censorship-resistant voting. Buterin sees this as an example of how blockchain and zero-knowledge proofs can provide both privacy and reliability, potentially creating a more secure and resilient infosphere against both centralized and decentralized cyber attacks.
Buterin acknowledges that while blockchain technology may not be necessary for Americans to communicate, it could be critical for people in authoritarian states to have secure and private conversations about their political situations. This technological capacity could foster internal dissent and democratization efforts within these regimes by providing a safe space for dialogue and organization.
Smith appreciates this perspective and sees potential in developing tools that make the Internet landscape more conducive to pluralism, where multiple groups can communicate with each other in productive ways. The idea is not to play a game of cat and mouse with oppressive regimes, but to create robust systems that support healthy information ecosystems, allowing diverse voices to be heard without fear of retaliation.
In conclusion, blockchain technology, with its ability to provide secure, anonymous communications and verifiable voting mechanisms, offers promising avenues for supporting democratic movements and ensuring freedoms in authoritarian contexts.
By leveraging these technologies, it may be possible to counter some of the disadvantages that liberal democracies face in the digital age, allowing democracy to continue to flourish even in challenging environments.
Ultimately, the discussion highlights the complexity of predicting long-term outcomes in the face of rapid technological advancement. While the potential for authoritarian regimes to exploit these technologies is significant, the inherent adaptability and resilience of liberal democracies should not be underestimated. The future remains uncertain and is shaped by the interaction between technological capabilities, political structures and social values.
