November has started on a negative note for crypto prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly falling towards $105,000 on Monday. This decline has led to a renewed sense of bearish sentiment among investors, with experts warning that conditions could worsen in the coming days.
The November deadline is approaching
Market expert CryptoBirb recently expressed concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), noting that the market has been in a bearish cycle for ten days. According to CryptoBirb, when you dive into on-chain data, the picture becomes more alarming.
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CryptoBirb’s analysis starts with cycle peak data: it has been 1,078 days since the low in November 2022, meaning 101.2% of the crypto cycle is complete. Additionally, 563 days have passed since the last halving, with 45 days remaining within the typical peak range of 518 to 580 days.
Alarmingly, the expected rally that will lead to this peak has not occurred, and there are only 17 days left before the window for a peak closes on November 20. Missed breakouts during this time frame have signaled the end of the previous peak. bullish cycles.
Comparing the current situation with the 2017 cycle, it is notable that Bitcoin peaked on December 17, 2017, 1,068 days after the low. With BTC now 1,078 days into its current cycle, the chances of a late top decrease with each passing day that the cryptocurrency remains below $113,000.
From a performance perspective, Bitcoin is down 16% from its all-time high of $126,200 and is up just 8.2% this year. The market’s leading cryptocurrency has faced repeated rejections near the $113,000 to $114,000 range and is currently trading below the 200-day forward. simple moving average (SMA) of $109,882.
Historically, November typically sees an average gain of 17.5%, with positive performance in 10 of the past 15 years. However, the expert points out that when November starts in the red, it often indicates that the cycle is already shifting.
Potential Bullish Factors Amid Continued Cryptocurrency Concerns
Adding to this bearish sentiment, DeFi researcher DeFiIgnas has done so outlined several factors complicating the crypto market’s trajectory. These include what he calls “the speculative nature of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble,” the inability of bullish news to boost crypto prices, the uncertainty surrounding entities that collapsed after the October 10 crash, and the cyclical nature of the market.
In addition, there is the selling activity of long-term holders and negative cryptocurrencies exchange traded funds (ETF) flows are adding to the prevailing concerns.
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Despite these challenges, DeFiIgnas also identified some potential bullish factors that could promote recovery rather than further declines.
These include easing of liquidity and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a lack of euphoria in the crypto space, slow but steady institutional adoptionand the possible passage of a US crypto market structure law.
Historically strong performance in the fourth quarter, stablecoin supply at an all-time high and a recent US trade deal with China could also counterbalance the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com