This article is available in Spanish.
Over the past seven months, Bitcoin’s price has risen between $73,777 and $49,000, which has significantly dampened market sentiment. In a new analysis published via X, Will Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, says addresses the prevailing sentiment of impatience and uncertainty among investors, and shares why he remains optimistic.
Clemente’s bullish sentiment comes from a long-term perspective over the next decade. Drawing on his expertise in portfolio construction and asset allocation, Clemente emphasized the importance of identifying the key economic trends likely to develop over the next decade. “I’ve been thinking a lot lately about portfolio construction and position sizing. I keep coming back to the fact that there is nothing I would rather be in a coma for ten years than Bitcoin,” said Clemente, emphasizing his confidence in Bitcoin as the superior long-term asset.
His analysis is based on anticipating certain macroeconomic trends. Clemente suggests that investors should consider what the biggest trends are likely to be over the next decade and adjust their portfolios accordingly. This involves either significantly increasing investments in the trend with the highest confidence, or spreading investments across several promising trends based on their potential impact.
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Personally, he prefers to focus on the most likely trend, which he identifies as the continued growth of the US deficit and the resulting need for the government to devalue the currency to service these debts. According to Clemente, this scenario offers a more predictable outcome than other technological trends such as AI or space exploration.
“Compared to other technology trends, the humiliation is pure mathematics. Moreover, the way to bet on other technological trends, for example AI or space travel, is not as clear as debasement, as there is no way to position this as clearly as Bitcoin,” Clemente writes.
How High Can Bitcoin Rise in 10 Years?
Clemente’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is reinforced by his analysis of potential capital inflows from sovereign wealth and pension funds. He estimates that if these entities were to allocate just 1% of their capital to Bitcoin, it would result in approximately $460 billion in new investments in BTC, potentially doubling the market cap and pushing prices up to between $150,000 and $200,000 per year. Bitcoin.
He further speculates on the impact of a larger allocation, suggesting that if shortage concerns increase, these institutions could allocate as much as 3%, which would translate into a $1.4 trillion inflow into Bitcoin. And the upside potential is even greater. “What happens when it eats away at gold’s $10 to $15 trillion monetary premium? What about the combined monetary premium in government bonds/equities/real estate currently parked as government bonds in these assets to protect against currency depreciation?” Clemente thought.
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Concluding his analysis, Clemente reasoned that a price of $1 million per Bitcoin in 2034 is not outside the realm of possibility if we take into account the reduced purchasing power of the dollar. “I would also like to add that this doesn’t take into account the fact that dollars will be worth significantly less in the future due to degradation, so $1mm BTC in 2034 isn’t as crazy as $1mm BTC in 2024,” noted the analyst.
However, Clemente also acknowledged: “I think Bitcoin’s days of 100%+ CAGR are over, but that doesn’t mean it won’t outperform stock indices by a lot – and on a confidence-adjusted basis, I don’t see anything just right today so attractive on the market.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $56,481.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
